Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction - March 24, 2026
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The Colorado Avalanche travel to Pittsburgh for a matchup against the Penguins on March 24, 2026, in what projects to be a closely contested affair between two teams with distinctly different trajectories. Colorado enters as a top-tier possession team with elite underlying metrics, while Pittsburgh has shown resilience in recent games despite underwhelming advanced stats. This Avalanche vs Penguins prediction hinges on whether Pittsburgh's recent win streak can override Colorado's superior shot-generation prowess.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Colorado's 6-3-1 record masks some genuinely impressive underlying play. Over their last five games, the Avalanche have recorded two wins and appear to be hitting their stride at the right time of the season. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, sits at 4-3-3 with three wins in their last five—a positive trend that suggests improved execution despite the team's overall body of work this season.
Neither team is playing on a back-to-back, with both clubs enjoying one day of rest before this matchup. This neutralizes the fatigue factor and ensures both squads can deploy their top lines at full strength.
Advanced Stats Comparison
This is where the Avalanche Penguins pick becomes clearer. Colorado's advanced metrics are significantly ahead of Pittsburgh across the board. The Avalanche boast a 58.22% Corsi For percentage (CF%), indicating they control the puck and generate more shot attempts than their opponent. That dominance extends to expected goals, where Colorado holds a 56.31% xGF%, meaning their shots are higher quality and more dangerous.
The most telling stat is high-danger chances, where Colorado leads 57.72% to Pittsburgh's 48.97%. This suggests the Avalanche aren't just outshooting opponents—they're creating premium scoring opportunities. Pittsburgh's 47.37% CF% and 43.94% xGF% reveal a team that struggles to maintain possession and generates lower-quality offense, a pattern that typically doesn't hold up in a 60-minute game against elite competition.
Goalie Matchup
Scott Wedgewood has been a revelation for Colorado this season, posting a 25-5-6 record with excellent underlying numbers. The veteran goalie is facing a Penguins team that generates lower-danger chances, which plays directly to his strengths. Pittsburgh counters with Sergei Skinner (20-14-9), who has been solid but faces a much heavier workload in terms of high-quality chances against. In close games, Wedgewood's experience and the Avalanche's superior shot quality typically prove decisive.
Injury Impact
Neither team has reported key injuries heading into this matchup, so both squads will be at full strength. This eliminates injury-based asymmetries and keeps the focus on on-ice performance and analytics.
Goalscorer Picks
Colorado: Nathan MacKinnon is the primary target for anytime goalscorer bets, given his elite positioning and offensive talent. For value, Martin Necas offers intriguing odds as a high-danger chance generator who should see quality opportunities against Pittsburgh's permeable defense.
Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby remains the likeliest Penguin to find the back of the net, leveraging his hockey IQ in tight spaces. Bryan Rust provides a dark horse option at better odds, given his recent involvement in high-danger plays.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the Colorado Avalanche win probability is 53.0%, while the Pittsburgh Penguins sit at 47.0%. Our pick: Colorado Avalanche (53.0%).
The analytics strongly favor Colorado. Their 58% Corsi, 56% xGF%, and 58% high-danger chance percentage indicate a team that will likely dominate possession and create more scoring chances. While Pittsburgh's recent three-win streak is encouraging, it hasn't been accompanied by improved underlying metrics—a red flag that suggests regression is likely. Wedgewood's sterling record and Colorado's elite depth should prevail in a tight contest.
Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to explore different scenarios.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.