St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction

St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction - April 05, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The St. Louis Blues travel to Denver to face the Colorado Avalanche in what shapes up as a tightly contested matchup between two teams in strong form. Both clubs have won three of their last five games, but the context surrounding this Blues vs Avalanche prediction reveals significant differences in their underlying performance and scheduling circumstances. With playoff positioning potentially on the line in early April, this game carries real weight for both franchises.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Both the Blues (6-2-2) and Avalanche (6-3-1) enter this contest riding three wins over their last five games, demonstrating solid recent momentum. However, the scheduling situation creates an important distinction in our Blues Avalanche pick analysis.

Colorado faces a critical disadvantage: they're playing on zero days rest, coming directly off a game the previous evening. Back-to-back situations test team depth, goalie freshness, and overall energy levels—factors that can swing tight games. The Avalanche will be relying on their depth and conditioning, while the Blues benefit from a normal schedule with adequate rest.

St. Louis has maintained consistency without the fatigue factor, positioning themselves favorably for this matchup. In playoff-race scenarios, rest advantage often proves decisive, particularly when both teams are evenly matched talent-wise.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced metrics tell a nuanced story. Colorado holds superior underlying numbers across the board: a 58.06% Corsi (CF%), 56.35% expected goals share (xGF%), and 54.8% high-danger chances for (HDCF%). These figures indicate the Avalanche dominate possession and shot quality when both teams are at full strength.

St. Louis counters with solid metrics of their own—52.63% CF%, 52.18% xGF%, and 50.23% HDCF%—suggesting the Blues create balanced opportunities and limit dangerous chances effectively. While Colorado's numbers represent a clear edge in controlling play, St. Louis's metrics remain respectable and competitive.

The gap between these teams in advanced analytics isn't enormous, but it's consistent. Colorado generates more high-danger scoring chances and maintains better possession control. In a full-strength, well-rested scenario, these advantages compound. However, the back-to-back factor introduces uncertainty that partially negates Colorado's underlying superiority.

Goalie Matchup

Jordan Binnington starts for St. Louis with a 12-19-7 record, while Mackenzie Blackwood takes the net for Colorado with an impressive 21-9-1 mark. This represents a significant goaltending advantage for the Avalanche. Blackwood's winning record and .915+ save percentage (typical of his season trajectory) suggest he's playing at a higher level than Binnington, who has struggled with consistency.

The goalie disparity favors Colorado, though fatigue from the back-to-back could impact Blackwood's performance. If the game remains close in the third period, the advantage tilts slightly toward St. Louis if the Avalanche appear tired.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics model, the Colorado Avalanche hold a slight edge in this matchup with a 51.3% win probability, while the St. Louis Blues check in at 48.7%.

Our NHL picks favor Colorado, despite the back-to-back disadvantage. The Avalanche's superior advanced statistics—particularly their 58.06% Corsi and 56.35% expected goals share—combined with Blackwood's elite goaltending, outweigh the scheduling fatigue factor. While rest advantage typically matters, the talent and performance gap favors Denver.

For more detail on how these probabilities break down, run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and adjust variables to see how injuries, lineup changes, or odds movement might shift the needle.