The St. Louis Blues travel to San Jose for a Western Conference matchup against the Sharks on March 6, 2026. Both teams have found their rhythm recently with three wins in their last five games, but the underlying analytics reveal important differences in how they're playing. This Blues vs Sharks prediction examines which team's recent success is more sustainable and which squad has the edge in the underlying metrics that drive wins.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Both the Blues and Sharks come into this contest riding identical 3-1 records over their last five games, suggesting momentum is relatively balanced heading into puck drop. However, the context matters. St. Louis sits at 4-5-1 overall, indicating they've struggled through stretches this season despite the recent uptick in performance. San Jose, meanwhile, holds a 5-4-1 record, meaning their recent wins have positioned them slightly better in the standings.
The good news for both teams is that neither is playing back-to-back games, so fatigue shouldn't be a factor. Both squads will be well-rested and ready to compete at full capacity. This is a standard scheduling situation that favors neither team, but eliminates a potential variable that could skew the Blues Sharks pick in either direction.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When we dig into the advanced analytics, the story becomes more nuanced. The Sharks hold a slight edge in shot metrics with a 49.04 Corsi percentage compared to the Blues' 48.42 CF%, indicating San Jose is controlling play slightly better at even strength. More importantly, the Sharks' expected goals for percentage (xGF%) stands at 46.08, compared to St. Louis at 41.41—a meaningful gap of nearly 4.7 percentage points.
The high-danger chances metric tells an even more compelling story for San Jose. The Sharks dominate with a 49.38 HDCF%, meaning they're generating more quality scoring opportunities than their opponents. The Blues, by contrast, sit at 41.18 HDCF%, suggesting they're allowing more dangerous chances than they create. This differential is particularly telling because high-danger chances are the strongest predictor of future goal-scoring performance.
In a Blues vs Sharks prediction, these analytics-based differences matter significantly. San Jose isn't just winning; they're winning while generating better chances and controlling play more effectively.
Goalie Matchup
The Blues will start J. Hofer, who carries a 15-11-3 record this season with a reasonable track record of competence between the pipes. San Jose counters with Y. Askarov, who boasts a superior 19-16-2 record, indicating he's been asked to steal more games and has generally delivered at a higher rate than Hofer.
While Hofer has been serviceable for St. Louis, Askarov's extra wins suggest he's been the more impactful goaltender this season. In a close matchup, the goalie difference could prove decisive.
Prediction
WP Hockey Predictor's pick favors the San Jose Sharks with a 54.8% win probability, while the St. Louis Blues sit at 45.2%. The advanced analytics overwhelmingly support this projection. San Jose's advantages in expected goals, high-danger chances, and shot metrics align with their superior record and indicate they're the more fundamentally sound team right now.
The Blues have shown recent competitiveness, but their underlying numbers suggest they're performing slightly above their talent level. The Sharks, conversely, are generating elite chances and controlling the pace of play. For NHL picks in this matchup, the data points toward San Jose as the value play.
Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's advanced calculator to see how adjustments to key variables might shift the probability.