New Jersey Devils vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction - April 05, 2026
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The New Jersey Devils travel to Montreal to face the red-hot Canadiens in what promises to be a compelling matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. While the Devils are solid on the season at 6-3-1, they'll face a Canadiens squad that's simply been dominant, sitting at 9-1-0. This Devils vs Canadiens prediction breaks down the analytics, matchups, and situational factors that could decide the outcome on April 5th.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Montreal's season has been nothing short of exceptional. The Canadiens have won their last five consecutive games, establishing themselves as one of the league's most consistent performers. That streak speaks to both offensive execution and defensive responsibility—exactly what you need in meaningful games.
The Devils, meanwhile, have picked up two wins in their last five games, showing signs of inconsistency despite their respectable overall record. This momentum discrepancy is significant in April, when execution becomes paramount.
Both teams will be playing on back-to-back nights with zero days rest, which adds a fatigue element to consider. The Devils arrive in Montreal fresh off their previous game, as does Montreal. While back-to-backs typically favor the team with deeper depth and stronger conditioning, Montreal's superior form gives them the edge in navigating this scheduling constraint.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When we dive into the underlying analytics, the picture becomes clearer. The New Jersey Devils possess a substantial edge in shot metrics, posting a Corsi percentage (CF%) of 51.54, meaning they're controlling play and generating more shot attempts than they're allowing. Their expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 54.12 reinforces this—they're creating high-quality chances at a sustainable rate.
The Devils' high-danger chance for percentage (HDCF%) sits at 53.05, indicating they're generating scoring opportunities from dangerous areas consistently.
However, the Canadiens' advanced stats tell a different story of efficiency. Despite posting lower possession metrics (CF% of 45.56), Montreal is converting their opportunities at an elite rate. Their xGF% of 51.25 and HDCF% of 46.69 suggest they're playing a more pragmatic, results-oriented style—doing more with less. This is the hallmark of well-coached, disciplined teams that execute in critical moments.
Goalie Matchup
The Devils will start Jiri Markstrom, who carries a 22-18-1 record on the season. While Markstrom has been solid, his numbers reflect a team with inconsistent support.
Montreal counters with Jake Fowler, posting an impressive 8-5-2 record. Fowler's win-loss ratio and the context of Montreal's dominant season suggest he's playing with confidence and strong team support in front of him. In back-to-back situations, goalie performance often determines outcomes, and the edge here goes to Fowler and the Canadiens' defensive system.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics algorithm, the Montreal Canadiens are favored to win with a 53.9% win probability, compared to the New Jersey Devils' 46.1% probability.
While the Devils possess superior underlying numbers in shot volume and expected goals, Montreal's demonstrated consistency, elite recent form (5-0 in last five), and superior execution efficiency make them the pick in this matchup. The Canadiens' ability to win with less possession is a sign of a team operating at peak efficiency—exactly what separates contenders from pretenders in April hockey.
For NHL picks involving individual performances, Jack Hughes offers value for the Devils, while Nick Suzuki remains a reliable play for Montreal.
Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor to customize this analysis with updated odds and additional scenarios.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.