New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers Prediction

New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers Prediction - March 31, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The New Jersey Devils travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Rangers in a critical Metropolitan Division matchup on March 31, 2026. This Devils vs Rangers prediction hinges on recent form, underlying analytics, and goaltending performance. The Devils enter as the team to beat on the numbers, but the Rangers' home-ice advantage and desperation could make this closer than expected.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Devils bring momentum into this contest, winning three of their last five games and holding a 6-4-0 record in the sample we're analyzing. That consistency suggests a team playing structured hockey and converting opportunities at a reasonable rate.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have won only two of their last five games, compiling a 4-5-1 record. That's a notable difference in trajectory. New York appears to be struggling to find consistency, which is concerning heading into a divisional showdown. Both teams have normal rest schedules with one day between games, so fatigue is not a differentiating factor in this matchup.

Advanced Stats Comparison

This is where the Devils vs Rangers pick becomes clearer. New Jersey's advanced metrics are significantly superior across the board.

In Corsi (shot attempts), the Devils dominate at 53.47 CF% compared to the Rangers' 46.07 CF%. That 7.4-point edge indicates the Devils are controlling play and generating more volume in both directions of the ice.

Expected goals tell a similar story: New Jersey leads 55.19 xGF% to New York's 44.91 xGF%. This means the Devils are not just taking more shots—they're taking better shots from more dangerous areas.

High-danger chance differential reinforces this dominance. The Devils' 52.65 HDCF% versus the Rangers' 44.35 HDCF% shows New Jersey is creating scoring chances from prime real estate far more efficiently. In tight games, these differentials often determine outcomes.

Goalie Matchup

J. Markstrom takes the net for New Jersey with an impressive 22-17-1 record, while Igor Shesterkin counters for the Rangers at 23-16-6. Both goalies have been reliable this season, though Shesterkin's additional win speaks to the Rangers' occasional bright spots.

However, Markstrom has the advantage of standing behind a team generating significantly more high-quality chances. The Devils' elite underlying metrics should give Markstrom fewer difficult moments, while Shesterkin will face sustained pressure. In a tight margin, goaltending can swing outcomes, but the Devils' dominance in shot quality and volume should favor Markstrom here.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced calculator, the New Jersey Devils are favored to win this matchup with a 51.9% win probability, compared to the New York Rangers' 48.1%.

This narrow but meaningful edge reflects the Devils' superior advanced statistics, stronger recent form, and overall control metrics. While the Rangers play at home and have the offensive firepower of J.T. Miller and others, the underlying numbers favor New Jersey's structured, possession-dominant approach. The Devils Rangers pick leans toward the visitors, but this is a tight contest that could easily swing on a timely goal or Shesterkin's hot hand.

WP Pick: New Jersey Devils (51.9%)

Want to run your own scenarios? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and test different matchups.