Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The New Jersey Devils head to Dallas for a pivotal matchup against the Stars on March 24, 2026. With the Devils riding a strong stretch and Dallas looking to bounce back from inconsistent recent form, this contest shapes up as a tight battle between two Eastern Conference contenders. Our Devils vs Stars prediction leans on advanced analytics to separate these two competitive teams.
Team Form & Recent Performance
The Devils come into this game with clear momentum, posting a 7-3-0 record over their last 10 contests with three wins in their last five. More importantly, New Jersey enjoyed three days of rest before this matchup, allowing the team to recover and prepare thoroughly. This rest advantage should help them sustain their high-intensity play.
Dallas, conversely, has been inconsistent lately. The Stars sit at 6-2-2 over their last stretch with just two wins in their last five games—a concerning trend for a team that should be competing for postseason positioning. While they have no back-to-back situation, one day of rest is standard schedule maintenance rather than a competitive advantage. The Stars need to find their earlier-season form to stay competitive in this matchup.
Advanced Stats Comparison
The underlying numbers paint a compelling picture in favor of the Devils. New Jersey dominates the Corsi battle with a 57.17 CF%, indicating superior shot generation and puck possession control. This translates to a significant expected goals advantage: the Devils lead in xGF% at 59.38% compared to Dallas's 52.5%.
Perhaps most telling is the high-danger chances metric. The Devils hold a 54.01 HDCF%, meaning they're creating more Grade-A scoring opportunities than their opponents—a predictor of offensive success. Dallas sits at 53.25% in this category, a marginal advantage that doesn't overcome New Jersey's superiority in the other critical measures. These analytics suggest the Devils are the better team at generating chances and controlling play.
Goalie Matchup
This matchup features two excellent netminders. Jake Oettinger has been outstanding for Dallas with a 29-10-6 record, posting a .920+ save percentage and establishing himself as a Vezina Trophy candidate. However, Joren Markstrom brings 21-16-1 record into this contest and has proven he can steal games when needed. While Oettinger edges Markstrom in credentials, both goalies are capable of keeping their teams in any game.
Goalscorer Picks
For the Devils: Nico Hischier remains the primary anytime goalscorer recommendation, as the captain consistently finds the net in crucial moments. For better value, look at Jack Hughes, whose recent high-danger chance generation offers attractive odds without the chalk of obvious selections.
For the Stars: Jason Robertson is the flagship pick, continuing his role as Dallas's most consistent offensive threat. Matt Duchene presents an intriguing dark horse option, offering respectable odds while maintaining scoring upside in Dallas's balanced attack.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics, the New Jersey Devils are favored to win with a 51.6% probability, compared to Dallas's 48.4%. The Devils' superior possession metrics, higher expected goals rate, and better recent form—combined with their three-day rest advantage—give them the edge. While it's a tight matchup with only a 3.2-percentage-point spread, the analytics clearly favor New Jersey. Run your own prediction using our calculator to explore different scenarios.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.