The Anaheim Ducks travel to Winnipeg for a matchup against the Jets on March 10, 2026, in what shapes up as a competitive Western Conference battle. Both teams have been solid recently, each posting three wins in their last five games, but the underlying analytics tell an interesting story about which team holds the edge in this Ducks vs Jets prediction.
Team Form & Recent Performance
The Ducks arrive in Winnipeg riding a wave of momentum, with three wins in their last five outings and an impressive 7-3-0 record. They're well-rested heading into this matchup, with no back-to-back games to manage. Anaheim has been quietly effective, maintaining consistency both offensively and defensively over their recent stretch.
The Jets, meanwhile, sit at 5-2-3 over the same period, also securing three wins in their last five games. However, their record tells a more complex story—they've had more variation in results with three overtime/shootout losses factored in. Like Anaheim, Winnipeg is fresh and not dealing with back-to-back fatigue, so both teams should be at full strength in terms of rest and preparation.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When examining the deeper analytics that drive our Ducks Jets pick, Winnipeg's numbers demonstrate a more convincing edge across the board. The Jets dominate in Corsi percentage (CF%) at 51.61 compared to Anaheim's 48.98, indicating Winnipeg controls play and generates more shot attempts overall.
Expected goals percentage (xGF%) further favors the Jets at 49.79 versus the Ducks' 46.7—a meaningful advantage that suggests Winnipeg is creating higher-quality scoring chances. Most tellingly, Winnipeg leads significantly in high-danger chances (HDCF%) at 52.29 to Anaheim's 46.15. This metric is particularly predictive of future performance, as it measures the most dangerous scoring opportunities. The Jets' ability to generate chances from prime scoring areas gives them a substantial analytical advantage in this matchup.
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal gets the nod for Anaheim with a solid 25-14-2 record this season. The young goaltender has been a bright spot for the Ducks, posting strong numbers relative to the team's overall performance.
Connor Hellebuyck counters for Winnipeg, though his 16-16-9 record suggests a more inconsistent season. However, record alone doesn't tell the full story with goalies. Hellebuyck is an elite talent when playing behind a Jets team that generates the quality chances we see in their advanced metrics. The underlying shot quality differential typically favors goalies when their team controls play, which is the case here.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics calculator, the Winnipeg Jets are favored to win this matchup, earning a win probability of 53.4% compared to the Anaheim Ducks' 46.6%. While this isn't a blowout prediction, the data clearly tilts toward Winnipeg.
The Jets' advantages in shot volume (Corsi), expected goals, and particularly high-danger chance creation form a compelling case. Winnipeg is simply generating more scoring opportunities from better areas of the ice. With Mark Scheifele leading the charge, the Jets' depth scoring ability combined with their puck-possession metrics creates a sustainability advantage in this contest. Anaheim will need to play a mistake-free, efficient game to steal a win on the road.
Want to dive deeper into this NHL picks analysis? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and explore how different variables impact the outcome.