Calgary Flames vs New Jersey Devils Prediction - March 12, 2026
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The Calgary Flames travel to New Jersey for a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. While Calgary has struggled to find consistency, the Devils are riding hot form with four wins in their last five games. This Flames vs Devils prediction hinges on momentum, underlying analytics, and a significant health gap between the two rosters.
Team Form & Recent Performance
The Flames are in rough shape, posting just one win across their last five games (3-6-1 overall). Calgary's inconsistency is reflected not just in the win-loss column but in their advanced metrics—a team searching for answers on both ends of the ice. The Devils, by contrast, are surging. They've won four of five and sit at 4-6-0, suggesting their recent form has been a dramatic turnaround from earlier struggles.
New Jersey also benefits from significantly better rest, arriving with three days between games compared to Calgary's single day of recovery. While this isn't a true back-to-back situation for either team, the extra preparation time could give the Devils a tactical edge in a game where execution matters.
Advanced Stats Comparison
The underlying analytics paint a clear picture favoring New Jersey in this Flames Devils pick. The Devils dominate the shot metrics with a 54.67 Corsi percentage (CF%), meaning they control the play and generate more chances. Calgary's 47.85 CF% indicates they're being outworked at even strength.
Expected goals further reinforce New Jersey's advantage. The Devils post a 55.14 xGF%, demonstrating they're creating higher-quality scoring opportunities. Calgary's 44.65 xGF% suggests they're both generating fewer chances and facing quality opposition. Most telling is the high-danger chance comparison: New Jersey leads 50.21% to 45.8%, meaning the Devils are winning the battle for the most critical scoring opportunities.
These metrics aren't fluky—they represent 5-on-5 play where the Devils are simply the better team right now.
Goalie Matchup
Calgary starts D. Wolf (18-24-3), a goalie struggling with a losing record and mediocre performance this season. New Jersey counters with J. Markstrom (19-15-1), who sports a winning record and has been steady for a Devils team that's found its footing recently. Markstrom's record suggests he's facing better team play, and that advantage should continue here.
The edge goes decisively to Markstrom, particularly given the advanced stats showing New Jersey generating more high-danger chances.
Injury Impact
Calgary enters this matchup severely compromised on the injury front. The Flames are without Sam Reinhart (Day-To-Day), Seth Jones (Upper Body, IR-LT), and Jonah Gadjovich (Upper Body, IR-LT), among others. Losing key contributors on both offense and defense significantly impacts Calgary's ability to execute their system and weather an opponent's pressure.
New Jersey, meanwhile, has no reported injuries, allowing them full roster flexibility and tactical options. This health disparity is substantial and favors the Devils considerably.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics calculator, the New Jersey Devils are favored to win with a 56.0% win probability, while the Calgary Flames hold a 44.0% chance. Our NHL picks lean toward the Devils in this matchup.
The recommendation is straightforward: New Jersey's superior underlying analytics, hot recent form, better rest, healthier roster, and goaltending advantage create a clear edge. Calgary's four-game struggle and mounting injuries make them a difficult team to back at this stage. The Devils' 54.67 CF% and 55.14 xGF% indicate they're the better team at 5-on-5 play—the foundation of hockey analysis.
For deeper analysis, run your own prediction using WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to see how different factors influence the outcome.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.