The Los Angeles Kings travel to Columbus for a matchup against the Blue Jackets on March 09, 2026, in what shapes up as an intriguing contrast between a team searching for consistency and one riding a hot streak. This Kings vs Blue Jackets prediction breaks down a game where recent form tells drastically different stories, yet the underlying analytics reveal a closer battle than the win-loss records might suggest.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Columbus enters this contest as the clear favorite on paper, sitting at 7-1-2 with three wins in their last five games. The Blue Jackets have established themselves as one of the league's steadier performers, combining elite consistency with recent momentum. They're moving in the right direction at precisely the right time in the season.
Los Angeles presents the opposite narrative. At 3-6-1, the Kings are struggling through a difficult stretch, though there's a silver lining: they've won two of their last five games, suggesting they may be turning a corner. With no back-to-back games for either team, both squads should be well-rested and ready to execute their systems. This eliminates one variable that could otherwise favor the Blue Jackets.
The Kings need this type of matchup against a quality opponent to build confidence and establish identity. Columbus, meanwhile, will be looking to maintain their elite form and continue padding their record in the competitive March schedule.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When examining the underlying metrics, the picture becomes remarkably balanced despite the record disparity. Los Angeles leads in expected goals percentage (xGF%) at 52.32% compared to Columbus's 50.0%—a meaningful edge suggesting the Kings are generating better quality scoring chances. This aligns with their recent two-game winning streak and indicates they're creating more dangerous opportunities than their record reflects.
The Corsi percentages (CF%) are nearly identical, with Columbus at 49.92% and Los Angeles at 49.84%. This suggests both teams are controlling play at roughly equal rates, with neither dominating possession in a significant way.
Where Columbus gains an advantage is in high-danger chances, where the Blue Jackets hold a 45.81% HDCF% compared to the Kings' 50.2%. However, Los Angeles's superior high-danger chances rate indicates they're converting their looks into more premium scoring opportunities—a critical factor in close games.
The advanced metrics paint a picture of competitive balance, suggesting this game could easily go either way despite Columbus's superior record.
Goalie Matchup
Darcy Kuemper takes the net for Los Angeles with a 15-13-9 record, while Jonathan Greaves gets the start for Columbus at 20-12-7. Greaves holds a clear advantage in wins and appears to be the more reliable option this season, backing up Columbus's strong team record. Kuemper, meanwhile, is operating with a negative record, though his recent performances have been solid as the Kings won two of their last five.
This goalie matchup favors Columbus on paper, with Greaves representing a higher-performing netminder in a superior system.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics, the Columbus Blue Jackets are favored to win this matchup with a 54.2% win probability, compared to the Los Angeles Kings' 45.8%. While the Kings' superior xGF% and high-danger chances rate suggest they can compete effectively, Columbus's elite record, recent form, and goalie advantage push them across the threshold.
The Blue Jackets' consistency and Jonathan Greaves's strong performance this season give them the edge, though this remains a competitive game where the Kings could absolutely steal a victory. For NHL picks, this represents a slight lean toward Columbus rather than a dominant pick, reflecting the underlying competitive balance.
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