Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The Los Angeles Kings travel to New Jersey to face the Devils in a matchup between two teams that have shown flashes of competence but remain inconsistent through March. Both clubs have won three of their last five games, suggesting some positive momentum, but the underlying circumstances surrounding this game paint a very different picture for each team. This Kings vs Devils prediction requires careful attention to the back-to-back scheduling and advanced metric advantage that will play a significant role in determining the outcome.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Both the Kings and Devils have picked up three wins in their last five games, indicating similar short-term trajectories. However, the context matters enormously here. Los Angeles is playing on the second night of a back-to-back set with zero days of rest, a considerable disadvantage in the NHL where travel fatigue and roster management become critical factors. The Kings' 4-5-1 record reflects inconsistency, and adding the physical toll of a back-to-back makes this a particularly challenging spot.
New Jersey, conversely, enters this game with normal rest—one full day between contests. The Devils' 4-6-0 record is marginally worse than Los Angeles, but their scheduling advantage cannot be overstated. Fresh legs typically translate to sharper execution, better defensive positioning, and more sustained pressure throughout all three periods. With both teams trending in a positive direction over their last five games, the rest disparity becomes the tiebreaker.
Advanced Stats Comparison
The underlying analytics reveal where the real advantage lies in this Kings Devils pick. New Jersey holds clear superiority across multiple indicators: a 55.99 Corsi for percentage (CF%) compared to Los Angeles' 50.59, meaning the Devils generate and maintain possession more effectively. This translates to shot volume and puck control, both critical in a tight playoff-race game.
The expected goals differential is even more telling. New Jersey's 57.59 xGF% dominates the Kings' 54.61, indicating the Devils create better-quality scoring chances through their system. High-danger chances favor Los Angeles slightly at 55.38 HDCF% versus New Jersey's 52.63, but this narrow edge is insufficient to overcome the Devils' advantage in overall shot quality and generation.
For those seeking NHL picks backed by analytics, these numbers consistently favor teams with higher expected goals rates in high-leverage situations. New Jersey's profile here is the stronger one.
Goalie Matchup
Jonathan Markstrom enters this game as the clear advantage for New Jersey. The veteran netminder carries a 19-16-1 record—significantly better than Anton Forsberg's 11-9-5 for Los Angeles. Beyond the win totals, Markstrom's experience and track record make him a trusted option in critical moments. Forsberg, while capable, has struggled with consistency this season. In a game where the Kings will have less rest and face a team with superior underlying metrics, the goalie position becomes even more crucial to Los Angeles' chances of stealing a victory.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's comprehensive analysis, the New Jersey Devils are the pick for March 14, 2026, with a win probability of 51.8%, compared to the Los Angeles Kings' 48.2%. While this is a relatively tight matchup, the combination of New Jersey's advanced stats advantage, superior goaltending, and most importantly, their fresh legs versus Los Angeles' back-to-back fatigue tips the scales slightly in the Devils' favor.
The Kings' positive recent form cannot overcome the structural disadvantage of playing on zero rest. Expect New Jersey to control play through the middle periods and capitalize on their possession advantage to secure a victory.
Want to run your own prediction model? Run your own prediction with different scenarios and variables.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.