Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
April 20 brings four critical Stanley Cup Playoff matchups with serious series implications. From the Flyers' quest to upset Pittsburgh to a virtual coin flip between Ottawa and Carolina, today's slate showcases the unpredictable nature of playoff hockey. The Ducks' surprising xGF% edge presents perhaps the most intriguing contrarian angle of the day.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Flyers arrive in Pittsburgh with significant momentum, winning four of their last five games while maintaining a dominant 56.66% expected goals-for percentage. This is a team controlling play at even strength and generating quality chances despite being labeled the underdog. The Penguins, meanwhile, are struggling—just one win in their last five contests—and their 48.39% xGF% indicates they're being outplayed more often than not.
On paper, Philadelphia holds the offensive edge in this series, and their strong possession metrics suggest they're not merely winning close games by chance. Pittsburgh's recent form is deeply concerning heading into a playoff elimination scenario. The one wild card remains goaltending, with both starter confirmations still pending. Goalie performance becomes magnified in playoff hockey where margins are razor-thin, so expect this to be a tight, low-scoring affair.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Philadelphia Flyers (55.9%) over Pittsburgh Penguins (44.1%)
Ottawa Senators @ Carolina Hurricanes
This matchup is essentially a pick 'em, with Ottawa holding the slimmest of advantages at 50.4% according to WP Hockey Predictor. Both teams bring legitimate playoff credentials to this series. Carolina's home arena presents a traditional advantage, and the Hurricanes' 57.96% Corsi-for percentage at home is elite—they're controlling the puck and limiting chances at PNC Arena.
However, the Senators shouldn't be overlooked. Their 56.63% xGF% across the series demonstrates they're creating legitimate scoring opportunities, and they've won three of five recent games. Ottawa's balanced play suggests this will come down to goaltending and special teams execution, two areas where roster depth and playoff experience matter enormously. The Hurricanes' four wins in their last five games give them slight momentum, but these teams appear evenly matched.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Ottawa Senators (50.4%) over Carolina Hurricanes (49.6%)
Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
Minnesota enters hostile territory at the American Airlines Center as a slight favorite, with WP Hockey Predictor favoring the Wild at 51.4%. The Wild's 55.89% xGF% demonstrates they're consistently generating high-quality chances, translating to offensive pressure that even Dallas's formidable home ice can't fully neutralize. However, Minnesota's recent form shows just two wins in their last five games, suggesting inconsistency.
The Stars counter with a strong 53.03% xGF% and four wins in their last five—a streak that indicates Dallas is peaking at the right time. Dallas's 46.17% CF% is a notable weakness, suggesting they may be getting outshot but capitalizing on their chances. In playoff hockey, this kind of efficiency-over-volume approach can be dangerous. With goalie confirmations still pending, expect tight checking and limited scoring opportunities. Both teams play stingy defense, which typically benefits the team with superior goaltending.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Minnesota Wild (51.4%) over Dallas Stars (48.6%)
Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers
The Ducks represent perhaps the most fascinating contrarian angle on today's NHL playoff predictions slate. Despite a 2-6-2 playoff record, Anaheim possesses an impressive 58.14% Corsi-for percentage—the highest of any team playing today. They're controlling play, generating chances, and frankly, appear to be the better hockey team based on possession metrics. Yet they sit on the brink of elimination, a stark reminder that playoff hockey rewards execution and goaltending over underlying metrics.
Edmonton, despite their 6-2-2 record, has been outworked and out-chanced, posting a 51.52% CF% and 52.41% xGF%. The Oilers have somehow won games despite not dominating possession, which speaks to either elite goaltending or timely scoring—both valuable in playoffs. Remarkably, WP Hockey Predictor actually favors Anaheim at 54.1%, suggesting their puck-possession advantage may finally pay dividends. With Lukas Dostal confirmed in net for the Ducks, goaltending could be the deciding factor in a game where one team controls play but the other has momentum.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Anaheim Ducks (54.1%) over Edmonton Oilers (45.9%)
Today's NHL picks showcase why advanced analytics matter in playoff hockey—and why they don't tell the whole story. The Flyers look like the better team against Pittsburgh, Ottawa and Carolina represent a genuine toss-up, Minnesota holds a slight edge despite inconsistent form, and Anaheim's possession metrics suggest an upset brewing against Edmonton. For detailed win probability calculations on every playoff matchup, Try WP Hockey Predictor to dive deeper into the analytics behind these picks.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.