Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
NHL Playoff Predictions for April 25, 2026 - Free Picks & Best Bets
April 25th brings three compelling Stanley Cup Playoff matchups that showcase wildly different narratives: a Carolina team riding hot form against an Ottawa squad desperate to stem the bleeding, a tight Stars-Wild showdown between two evenly matched contenders, and a Philadelphia juggernaut looking to finish off a Pittsburgh team in freefall. These are stakes-filled games where every possession matters, and our NHL playoff predictions factor in the unique pressures of postseason hockey where depth, goaltending, and mental toughness separate winners from losers.
Hurricanes @ Senators
Carolina arrives in Ottawa as one of the hottest teams in this playoff run, sporting a 7-2-1 record with four wins in their last five games. The Hurricanes' underlying numbers are equally impressive: a 57.96% Corsi For percentage and 53.82% expected goals share demonstrate they're controlling play and generating chances at an elite clip. This is the kind of two-way hockey that wins in the playoffs when depth forwards lock down defensively and the top line capitalizes on opportunities.
Ottawa's situation is considerably more precarious. The Senators have won just one game in their last five outings and are showing cracks both in possession (50.04 CF%) and shot quality (56.63 xGF%). While their expected goals percentage looks respectable at first glance, that figure masks an underlying problem: they're not generating dangerous chances at the rate they need to survive elimination hockey. In the playoffs, luck and volume matter less than creating high-danger opportunities and converting them. The Senators are struggling on both fronts.
This matchup will likely hinge on goaltending, as playoff games invariably do. Whoever can steal a game through hot goalie play has an edge, but on the weight of possession data and recent form, Carolina's ability to suppress chances and generate their own should prove decisive. WP Hockey Predictor's free NHL picks favor the Hurricanes here with a 53.3% win probability compared to Ottawa's 46.7%.
Stars @ Wild
This is one of the tightest matchups on the board. Dallas arrives with a superior recent record (7-2-1, four wins in last five) but trails slightly in possession metrics (46.17 CF%) and expected goals generation (53.03 xGF%). Minnesota's home ice advantage is real in playoff hockey, and the Wild's 49.45 CF% and 55.89 xGF% suggest they're the stronger possession team at Xcel Energy Center. Both clubs have two days of rest, so fatigue won't be a differentiator.
The Stars are classified as the underdog here despite their stronger win-loss record, a reflection of Minnesota's superior control-of-play metrics and home-ice advantage. In playoff hockey, possession and shot quality become proxies for puck luck, and the Wild appear to have the slight edge in generating chances from dangerous areas. However, Dallas's recent winning streak and playoff experience shouldn't be discounted—the Stars know how to win tight games when it matters most.
Expect a low-scoring, tightly contested affair with limited offensive chances. Both teams will prioritize defensive structure, and special teams could very well decide the outcome. NHL predictions today from WP Hockey Predictor give Dallas a narrow 51.0% win probability versus Minnesota's 49.0%, making this essentially a coin flip with a razor-thin edge to the visitors. Try WP Hockey Predictor to see exactly how goalie performance, specific matchups, and rest advantages factor into these probabilities.
Penguins @ Flyers
Philadelphia enters this matchup with genuine championship momentum: a 7-3-0 playoff record, five consecutive wins, and dominant possession metrics (48.99 CF%, 56.66 xGF%). More crucially, the Flyers are generating high-danger chances at an elite rate and converting them. When a team possesses this combination of recent form and shot quality, they're in the driver's seat. The Xcel Energy Center becomes almost irrelevant when one team is this clearly in control of the play.
Pittsburgh's situation is dire. At 5-5-0, the Penguins are in genuine trouble—they've lost all five of their most recent games, a brutal skid in playoff hockey where every contest carries elimination implications. Their underlying numbers reflect the struggle: 49.87 CF% and 48.39 xGF% indicate they're being out-possessed and out-chanced. When a team generates just 48.39% of expected goals in the playoffs, they're playing from behind and hoping for goalie heroics rather than controlling their destiny.
The analytics paint a damning picture for Pittsburgh. They're not just losing; they're losing to a team that's demonstrably better at all the variables that predict playoff success: possession, chance quality, recent momentum, and depth scoring. Philadelphia's hot goaltender will only amplify this advantage. Free NHL picks from WP Hockey Predictor strongly favor the Flyers with a commanding 56.3% win probability, leaving Pittsburgh with just a 43.7% chance. This is one of the clearest edges of the day.
Today's playoff slate showcases the full spectrum of competition: a clear favorite, a tight toss-up, and a team riding elite form against a desperate opponent. Whether you're looking for NHL picks for your own analysis or curious about how advanced analytics predict these high-stakes games, Try WP Hockey Predictor to dive deeper into how Corsi, expected goals, goalie performance, and situational factors combine to create these win probabilities. The calculator breaks down every variable that matters in playoff hockey.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.