Archive note: Technical commentary has been removed. This remains historical pregame coverage; original selections have been retained where stated.
March 5th brings eight compelling NHL matchups with several tight contests that could swing either way. From the Rangers' struggle against a resurgent Maple Leafs squad to a potential trap game in Los Angeles, today's slate offers plenty of analytical intrigue.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers
Despite Toronto's underwhelming 3-5-2 record, this matchup presents an interesting contrarian play. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit just 2-6-2 at Madison Square Garden and have won only once in their last five games.
This is a classic goalie matchup with Igor Shesterkin (18-12-5) expected to start for New York against Joey Woll (13-9-4) for Toronto. Shesterkin carries the pedigree and superior record, but the Rangers' overall struggles suggest New York's underlying problems run deeper than goaltending. Toronto's back-to-back situation is a concern, yet they remain the slight underdog here.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs over New York Rangers. This is nearly a coin flip, but the analytics slightly favor the Leafs in a game where both teams need the win desperately.
Mammoth vs Flyers
The Mammoth appear to be hitting their stride at the right time.
Goaltending presents an intriguing contrast: Karel Vejmelka (28-16-2) has been one of the league's most reliable starters for Utah, while Philipp Vladar (18-9-6) has stabilized Philadelphia's crease. The Flyers are listed as the slight underdog despite playing at home, which reflects Utah's stronger overall record and recent momentum. This should be a tight, competitive affair.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Utah Mammoth over Philadelphia Flyers. Another near-even matchup with the slightest edge to the visiting Mammoth, who are playing better hockey right now.
Sabres vs Penguins
Buffalo is one of the league's surprise stories at 7-2-1, and they get a chance to prove their legitimacy against a fellow Eastern Conference contender. Ulaf Luukkonen (13-7-2) has been spectacular in net, posting excellent goalie metrics that have buoyed Buffalo's record.
Those numbers are among the best in the league and suggest the Penguins are manufacturing legitimate scoring chances at an elite rate. Tristan Jarry's absence means Samuel Skinner (19-12-6) gets the start, and that's a significant disadvantage compared to Pittsburgh's usual depth. Nevertheless, the Penguins' shot quality and team play should shine through here.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Buffalo Sabres over Pittsburgh Penguins.
Panthers vs Blue Jackets
Florida's 2-8-0 record looks dreadful on its surface, yet there's a fascinating statistical contradiction in this matchup. This is a team that should be significantly better than their record suggests, making them a potential buy-low candidate. Sergei Bobrovsky (22-18-1) has seen heavy volume but inconsistent results.
The Blue Jackets' success has been built on efficiency and timely scoring. Joonas Kuemper (18-12-7) has been reliable but not exceptional. The analytics suggest this could be a bounce-back spot for Florida despite their dire record, though Columbus' elite actual record gives them credibility.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets over Florida Panthers. The slight edge goes to Columbus' elite actual record, even as Florida's analytics hint at better days ahead.
Bruins vs Predators
Boston's 6-1-3 record represents one of the season's best stories, though their analytics tell a more cautious tale. Jeremy Swayman (22-13-3) has been outstanding, carrying a heavy workload while posting excellent save percentages. This team is riding goaltending and clinical finishing—a potentially unstable combination.
Juuse Saros (21-17-6) shoulders considerable responsibility but has posted strong metrics this season. This setup favors Nashville despite Boston's superior record—the Predators are generating better chances and playing at home.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Boston Bruins over Nashville Predators. Boston's record and execution edge out Nashville's analytics advantage in a tight matchup, but this is nearly even.
Lightning vs Jets
The Lightning have been dominant in underlying play, and Andrei Vasilevskiy (28-8-3) remains one of the league's premier goaltenders. This is championship-caliber hockey from Tampa, and they enter Winnipeg as the clear favorite despite being on the road.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning over Winnipeg Jets. Tampa's elite metrics and goaltending advantage overcome the Jets' home-ice edge in a convincing matchup.
Senators vs Flames
The Senators are playing elite hockey right now with Linus Ullmark (17-8-6) posting excellent numbers in net. This team is built to win playoff hockey and is getting better by the day. They enter Calgary as clear favorites despite being on the road.
The Flames generate decent possession but struggle to create quality chances. Dan Wolf (17-22-3) has been a weak link in net, posting poor metrics that have compounded Calgary's offensive struggles. This is a mismatch on paper.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Ottawa Senators over Calgary Flames.
Islanders vs Kings
New York enters on a back-to-back after winning four of their last five games. The Islanders remain a playoff-contending team playing good hockey.
The Kings have struggled to generate offense consistently, and Darcy Kuemper (14-12-9) has seen significant volume with mixed results. New York on a back-to-back still represents superior talent and analytics.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: New York Islanders over Los Angeles Kings.
Looking for more detailed analysis on any of these matchups? Our free NHL predictions today tool provides the exact calculations powering these NHL picks—giving you the analytics edge you need.