March 5th brings eight compelling NHL matchups with several tight contests that could swing either way. From the Rangers' struggle against a resurgent Maple Leafs squad to a potential trap game in Los Angeles, today's slate offers plenty of analytical intrigue. Our NHL predictions leverage advanced metrics to identify value across the board, so let's dive into the best free NHL picks for this evening.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers
Despite Toronto's underwhelming 3-5-2 record, this matchup presents an interesting contrarian play. The Maple Leafs are on a back-to-back after battling through sub-50% Corsi numbers, yet their 47.35% xGF% actually suggests they've been generating quality chances. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit just 2-6-2 at Madison Square Garden and have won only once in their last five games. New York's 47.32% CF% shows they're slightly outpacing Toronto's shot generation, but their 46.25% xGF% reveals they're not converting opportunities efficiently.
This is a classic goalie matchup with Igor Shesterkin (18-12-5) expected to start for New York against Joey Woll (13-9-4) for Toronto. Shesterkin carries the pedigree and superior record, but the Rangers' overall struggles suggest New York's underlying problems run deeper than goaltending. Toronto's back-to-back situation is a concern, yet they remain the slight underdog here.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs (50.3%) over New York Rangers (49.7%). This is nearly a coin flip, but the analytics slightly favor the Leafs in a game where both teams need the win desperately.
Mammoth vs Flyers
Utah enters this contest riding a three-game winning streak with impressive underlying numbers: 48.97% CF% and 48.49% xGF%. The Mammoth appear to be hitting their stride at the right time. Philadelphia counters with equally strong form—also riding a three-game win streak—but their home ice hasn't been particularly dominant with 48.36% CF%. However, the Flyers' 51.61% xGF% at home is a significant advantage, suggesting they're creating high-quality scoring opportunities on their home ice.
Goaltending presents an intriguing contrast: Karel Vejmelka (28-16-2) has been one of the league's most reliable starters for Utah, while Philipp Vladar (18-9-6) has stabilized Philadelphia's crease. The Flyers are listed as the slight underdog despite playing at home, which reflects Utah's stronger overall record and recent momentum. This should be a tight, competitive affair.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Utah Mammoth (50.4%) over Philadelphia Flyers (49.6%). Another near-even matchup with the slightest edge to the visiting Mammoth, who are playing better hockey right now.
Sabres vs Penguins
Buffalo is one of the league's surprise stories at 7-2-1, and they get a chance to prove their legitimacy against a fellow Eastern Conference contender. The Sabres' 48.88% CF% is respectable, though their 46.02% xGF% suggests they've been somewhat fortunate with shooting percentage. Ulaf Luukkonen (13-7-2) has been spectacular in net, posting excellent goalie metrics that have buoyed Buffalo's record.
Pittsburgh counters with elite underlying metrics: 50.33% CF% and an impressive 54.29% xGF% at home. Those numbers are among the best in the league and suggest the Penguins are manufacturing legitimate scoring chances at an elite rate. Tristan Jarry's absence means Samuel Skinner (19-12-6) gets the start, and that's a significant disadvantage compared to Pittsburgh's usual depth. Nevertheless, the Penguins' shot quality and team play should shine through here.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Buffalo Sabres (52.4%) over Pittsburgh Penguins (47.6%). Despite Pittsburgh's elite xGF%, Buffalo's hot hand and superior goaltending give them the edge in a matchup between two quality teams.
Panthers vs Blue Jackets
Florida's 2-8-0 record looks dreadful on its surface, yet there's a fascinating statistical contradiction in this matchup. The Panthers boast an eye-popping 55.54% CF% and 55.58% xGF%—elite territory—which means they're being dramatically outshot and out-scored in close games. This is a team that should be significantly better than their record suggests, making them a potential buy-low candidate. Sergei Bobrovsky (22-18-1) has seen heavy volume but inconsistent results.
Columbus sits atop the league at 8-1-1 and has earned it with 49.79% CF% and 50.54% xGF% underlying metrics that are solid but not extraordinary. The Blue Jackets' success has been built on efficiency and timely scoring. Joonas Kuemper (18-12-7) has been reliable but not exceptional. The analytics suggest this could be a bounce-back spot for Florida despite their dire record, though Columbus' elite actual record gives them credibility.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets (51.5%) over Florida Panthers (48.5%). The slight edge goes to Columbus' elite actual record, even as Florida's analytics hint at better days ahead.
Bruins vs Predators
Boston's 6-1-3 record represents one of the season's best stories, though their analytics tell a more cautious tale. The Bruins' 46.99% CF% and 44.63% xGF% suggest they've been outplayed in possession and shot quality while winning games through execution. Jeremy Swayman (22-13-3) has been outstanding, carrying a heavy workload while posting excellent save percentages. This team is riding goaltending and clinical finishing—a potentially unstable combination.
Nashville enters with a middling 3-3-4 record but an interesting home profile: 51.56% CF% and 52.64% xGF% show the Predators dominate possession on home ice. Juuse Saros (21-17-6) shoulders considerable responsibility but has posted strong metrics this season. This setup favors Nashville despite Boston's superior record—the Predators are generating better chances and playing at home.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Boston Bruins (50.8%) over Nashville Predators (49.2%). Boston's record and execution edge out Nashville's analytics advantage in a tight matchup, but this is nearly even.
Lightning vs Jets
Tampa Bay brings 52.3% CF% and 52.34% xGF%—elite metrics that rank among the league's best. The Lightning have been dominant in underlying play, and Andrei Vasilevskiy (28-8-3) remains one of the league's premier goaltenders. This is championship-caliber hockey from Tampa, and they enter Winnipeg as the clear favorite despite being on the road.
Winnipeg's 4-3-3 record masks concerning underlying numbers: just 49.3% CF% and a troubling 46.54% xGF%. Connor Hellebuyck (13-16-9) has struggled this season, posting weak GSAA numbers despite his reputation. The Jets are playing poorly by the advanced metrics and need to reverse course quickly.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (52.4%) over Winnipeg Jets (47.6%). Tampa's elite metrics and goaltending advantage overcome the Jets' home-ice edge in a convincing matchup.
Senators vs Flames
Ottawa's 6-2-2 record comes with some of the league's most dominant analytics: 53.36% CF% and an elite 57.69% xGF%. The Senators are playing elite hockey right now with Linus Ullmark (17-8-6) posting excellent numbers in net. This team is built to win playoff hockey and is getting better by the day. They enter Calgary as clear favorites despite being on the road.
Calgary's 3-5-2 record reflects their 50.46% CF% and particularly weak 49.43% xGF%. The Flames generate decent possession but struggle to create quality chances. Dan Wolf (17-22-3) has been a weak link in net, posting poor metrics that have compounded Calgary's offensive struggles. This is a mismatch on paper.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Ottawa Senators (54.1%) over Calgary Flames (45.9%). Ottawa's elite underlying metrics and superior goaltending create a significant edge—this is one of today's clearer matchups.
Islanders vs Kings
New York enters on a back-to-back after winning four of their last five games. Despite the travel fatigue, the Islanders' 49.44% CF% and 47.72% xGF% are respectable, and Ilya Sorokin (22-13-2) is confirmed to start after his recent excellent performances. The Islanders remain a playoff-contending team playing good hockey.
Los Angeles sits at 3-6-1 with uninspiring metrics: 48.41% CF% and 47.13% xGF%. The Kings have struggled to generate offense consistently, and Darcy Kuemper (14-12-9) has seen significant volume with mixed results. New York on a back-to-back still represents superior talent and analytics.
WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: New York Islanders (53.9%) over Los Angeles Kings (46.1%). New York's superior underlying metrics and elite goaltending overcome the back-to-back factor, giving the Islanders a clear advantage on the West Coast.
Looking for more detailed analysis on any of these matchups? Try WP Hockey Predictor to generate custom win probabilities using Corsi, expected goals, and advanced goalie metrics. Our free NHL predictions today tool provides the exact calculations powering these NHL picks—giving you the analytics edge you need.