The New York Rangers travel to New Jersey for a divisional showdown against the Devils on March 7, 2026. This Metropolitan Division matchup features two teams heading in different directions, with the Devils showing stronger recent momentum while the Rangers are searching for consistency. Our Rangers vs Devils prediction dives into the advanced metrics and team dynamics that will determine the outcome of this contest.
Team Form & Recent Performance
The Rangers enter this game with a 3-5-2 record over their last 10 games, winning just 2 of their past 5 contests. This inconsistency has been a defining characteristic of their recent stretch, and they'll be looking to stabilize with a road victory against a divisional rival. New York has the benefit of rest heading into Friday, as they're not playing on consecutive nights.
The Devils, meanwhile, have caught fire with 3 wins in their last 5 games, demonstrating significantly better form than the Rangers. Despite carrying a 4-6-0 record in their past 10, New Jersey's recent trajectory is decidedly more positive. Like the Rangers, the Devils also avoid the back-to-back disadvantage, meaning both teams should be relatively fresh. This evens the playing field on the rest front, placing emphasis on overall team quality and underlying performance metrics.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When examining the underlying analytics, the Devils hold a clear edge across virtually every meaningful statistic. New Jersey's Corsi percentage (CF%) sits at an impressive 53.97%, indicating they're generating more shot attempts than their opponents—a fundamental indicator of puck possession and offensive pressure. The Rangers counter with 48.02% CF%, suggesting they're being outshot and outworked in terms of volume.
Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) paints an even starker picture. The Devils' 55.39% xGF% significantly outpaces the Rangers' 44.76%, meaning New Jersey is creating higher-quality scoring chances. This isn't just about shot volume; it's about shot quality and offensive execution. The Devils are generating chances from dangerous areas more consistently.
High-danger chances for percentage (HDCF%) follows the same pattern. New Jersey's 51.88% HDCF% exceeds New York's 46.96%, reinforcing that the Devils maintain an advantage in creating the most dangerous scoring opportunities. These advanced metrics collectively suggest that New Jersey's underlying play is superior, even accounting for recent record variations.
Goalie Matchup
Igor Shesterkin takes the crease for the Rangers, carrying a respectable 19-12-6 record. The Russian netminder has been dependable but has faced inconsistent team support. Opposite him, Jiri Markstrom starts for the Devils with an 18-14-1 record. Both goalies are capable, but Markstrom has had the benefit of slightly better offensive support from his team's superior even-strength play.
Shesterkin will need to be sharp to steal this game, as the Rangers may find themselves under sustained pressure given New Jersey's dominance in shot volume and quality metrics.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics calculator, the New Jersey Devils are favored with a 53.8% win probability, compared to the Rangers' 46.2%. The Devils' superior advanced stats—particularly their advantages in shot generation, expected goals, and high-danger chances—provide a solid foundation for this prediction.
While the Rangers have quality in net with Shesterkin and can't be counted out, the Devils' more consistent underlying performance and improved recent form make them the slight favorites in this division contest. New Jersey's possession metrics suggest they should control play for significant stretches.
Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor to explore different scenarios and understand how our model evaluates this Rangers Devils pick.