The Ottawa Senators travel to Edmonton for a matchup that pits two teams heading in opposite directions. Ottawa arrives on a three-game winning streak with strong underlying metrics, while the Oilers are searching for consistency after winning just one of their last five games. This Senators vs Oilers prediction hinges on form, advanced analytics, and a critical goalie matchup between Linus Ullmark and Tristan Jarry.
Team Form & Recent Performance
The Senators come into this contest riding positive momentum with three wins in their last five games. Their 6-3-1 record reflects a team that's found its footing recently, and they arrive in Edmonton without the burden of a back-to-back, allowing them to be fresh and prepared. This matters significantly for road teams facing the Oilers' elite skill players.
Edmonton's situation tells a different story. At 4-6-0, the Oilers have managed just one win in their last five outings—a concerning trend for a team with championship aspirations. They're also not on a back-to-back, so fatigue isn't an excuse. The Oilers need to rediscover their identity quickly, but facing a hot Ottawa team presents a difficult obstacle rather than an opportunity.
Advanced Stats Comparison
When examining the underlying numbers in our Senators Oilers pick analysis, Ottawa holds advantages across the board. The Senators post a 54.04 Corsi-for percentage (CF%), indicating they're controlling play and generating more shot attempts than they're allowing. More impressively, they're winning the expected goals battle decisively at 59.36 xGF%, meaning their shot quality is significantly better than Edmonton's.
The most telling metric comes in high-danger chances. Ottawa leads 60.27 HDCF%, demonstrating they're creating premium scoring opportunities at a substantially higher rate than their opponents. These are the chances that convert into goals, and the Senators have a clear edge here.
Edmonton's numbers paint a less optimistic picture. Their 53.69 CF% is competitive but not dominant, while their 52.29 xGF% suggests they're essentially trading shots with opponents rather than controlling play. The 51.69 HDCF% is particularly concerning—they're not creating enough prime scoring opportunities to overcome sloppy play or goaltending struggles.
Goalie Matchup
Linus Ullmark brings a 17-8-6 record into Edmonton, establishing himself as a reliable backstop who's won the majority of his decisions. Ullmark has been integral to Ottawa's recent success, posting solid numbers that reflect both his technical skill and the defensive support in front of him.
Tristan Jarry counters with a 15-7-2 record, but context matters. While his win total is respectable, Jarry has faced more difficult circumstances given Edmonton's defensive inconsistencies. In a game where shot quality favors Ottawa significantly, Jarry will need to be excellent. The Senators' ability to generate high-danger chances could prove too much for the Oilers' netminder if Edmonton's defense remains porous.
Prediction
WP Hockey Predictor's official pick: Ottawa Senators at 53.5% win probability.
The algorithm favors the Senators in this matchup, and the reasoning is straightforward. Ottawa possesses superior form, better underlying metrics across every major category, and they're the fresher team arriving in Edmonton without a back-to-back. The 53.5% probability reflects a moderately confident edge rather than a lock, acknowledging that Edmonton possesses offensive talent capable of getting hot on any given night.
However, the advanced analytics tell a clear story: the Senators are controlling play, creating better chances, and playing winning hockey. At 53.5% to 46.5%, this is our NHL picks recommendation based on data-driven analysis.
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