NHL Predictions for March 17, 2026 - Free Picks & Best Bets

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

March 17 brings a loaded nine-game slate across the NHL with several compelling matchups that could shift playoff positioning. The Buffalo Sabres look to maintain their elite form against Vegas, while the Carolina Hurricanes' dominant analytics take on a surprising Columbus team. Our free NHL picks today highlight several tightly contested games and a few standout value opportunities.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs

The New York Islanders arrive in Toronto riding a strong 7-3-0 record with a 51.15% Corsi advantage and 47.96% expected goals share. They've secured three wins in their last five and enter with two days of rest. The Toronto Maple Leafs, meanwhile, are struggling at 2-5-3 with concerning underlying metrics—just 40.88% CF% and 39.47% xGF%. While the Leafs have one day of rest versus the Islanders' two, Toronto's analytical disadvantage is substantial.

Goaltender matchup favors New York significantly. Ilya Sorokin (24-15-2) is confirmed and playing well, while Joseph Woll is expected to start for Toronto with a 14-11-5 record. The Islanders' defense-first structure and superior shot quality generation should pose problems for a Leafs offense that isn't generating high-danger chances at a sustainable rate.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: New York Islanders at 53.1% win probability.

Bruins vs Canadiens

This Atlantic Division battle features Montreal with fresh legs after two days rest versus Boston playing on zero days rest with a back-to-back situation. The Canadiens edge a close matchup with 48.65% CF% and 49.73% xGF%, while the Bruins counter at 50.33% CF% and 49.79% xGF%. Both squads have nearly identical analytics, but Montreal's three wins in five games and full recovery advantage create a slight edge.

Jarus Dobes (21-7-4) has been exceptional for Montreal and gets the home start, while Jeremy Swayman (26-14-3) takes the ice for Boston despite the fatigue factor. The back-to-back situation for Boston, even with strong underlying numbers, typically manifests in third-period vulnerability. Look for Montreal to capitalize on any gaps in Boston's depth.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Montreal Canadiens at 50.1% win probability.

Hurricanes vs Blue Jackets

Carolina brings elite offensive analytics to Columbus with a dominant 62.01% CF% and 60.27% xGF%, backed by three wins in their last five games. The Hurricanes have two days rest and a phenomenal goaltender in Antti Raanta (25-5-1). Columbus, despite their 5-1-4 record, shows more modest metrics at 50.5% CF% and 51.21% xGF%—suggesting some variance in their recent results.

The gap in puck possession and shot quality is striking. Carolina's elite defensive system and expected goals generation should overwhelm Columbus's Joonas Greaves (21-12-8), who has faced inconsistent support. This represents one of the clearer matchups on the slate from an analytical standpoint.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Carolina Hurricanes at 52.0% win probability.

Wild vs Blackhawks

Minnesota's 51.47% CF% and impressive 55.52% xGF% reveal a team generating superior chances despite a middling 4-4-2 record. One win in five recent games suggests some variance, but the underlying play is solid. Chicago, conversely, shows weakness across the board: 45.3% CF% and just 41.28% xGF%. The Blackhawks have only two wins in five games despite two days rest.

Filippo Gustavsson (24-11-6) is expected to start for Minnesota, while Chicago turns to Scott Knight (17-19-8). The Wild's expected goals advantage combined with Chicago's struggling defense should create multiple prime scoring opportunities. This is a game where the analytics strongly favor the visitor.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Minnesota Wild at 52.6% win probability.

Predators vs Jets

Nashville arrives as the underdog at 3-5-2 with pedestrian analytics: 49.11% CF% and 47.64% xGF%. The Predators show only two wins in their last five games. Winnipeg counters with 49.56% CF% and 49.83% xGF%—almost mirroring the matchup on paper—but the Jets' three wins in five games and home ice advantage tip the scales. Both teams have standard one-day rest.

Juuse Saros (23-19-7) starts for Nashville while Connor Hellebuyck (17-18-9) takes the crease for Winnipeg. The slight recent form advantage favors the Jets, though this projects as one of the closer contests on the slate. Winnipeg's home record typically provides a slight boost in such tightly-matched scenarios.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Winnipeg Jets at 50.4% win probability.

Sharks vs Oilers

San Jose brings 49.12% CF% and 48.2% xGF% into Edmonton, where the Oilers counter with 48.87% CF% but a more impressive 53.69% xGF%. Edmonton's three wins in five games edges San Jose's two wins, and the Oilers' expected goals advantage suggests they're creating more premium scoring opportunities despite similar possession rates. Both teams have standard one-day rest.

Alexander Nedeljkovic (13-9-3) starts for San Jose, while Connor Ingram (10-6-2) is expected for Edmonton. The Oilers' shot quality edge combined with recent form gives them a marginal advantage in this tight matchup. Nedeljkovic provides some stability for San Jose, but Edmonton's analytics win here.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: San Jose Sharks at 50.5% win probability.

Panthers vs Canucks

Florida enters with impressive 53.74% CF% and 53.25% xGF%, backed by three wins in their last five games. Vancouver struggles badly with just 43.52% CF% and 41.74% xGF%, compiling a 2-6-2 record. The Canucks' two wins in five games confirm their underlying weaknesses. Florida's one day of rest versus Vancouver's two doesn't offset the massive analytical gap.

Sergei Bobrovsky (24-19-1) is expected for Florida, while Kaapo Lankinen is confirmed for Vancouver with a concerning 7-21-5 record. The goaltender disparity and possessions advantage should allow Florida to control this matchup decisively. This represents strong value for the visiting Panthers.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Vancouver Canucks at 50.6% win probability.

Sabres vs Golden Knights

Buffalo enters as the league's hottest team at 9-1-0 with elite metrics: 52.27% CF% and 53.36% xGF%. Four wins in their last five games backed by two days rest creates an intimidating profile. Vegas, at 4-6-0, shows 52.54% CF% and 52.9% xGF%—nearly matching Buffalo's possession rates but lacking the offensive execution and recent form.

Ukko Luukkonen (15-8-2) is expected for Buffalo, while Vegas counters with Adin Hill (8-6-3). Despite nearly identical underlying metrics, Buffalo's elite goaltender, exceptional recent form, and two-day rest advantage should prevail. This is one of the clearest value plays on the slate.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Buffalo Sabres at 52.7% win probability.

Lightning vs Kraken

Tampa Bay arrives struggling at 3-7-0, though their 50.6% CF% and 47.76% xGF% suggest some underlying competence. Two days rest provides time to regroup. Seattle checks in at 4-6-0 with 46.01% CF% and 48.34% xGF%—slightly better in expected goals despite lower possession. Two wins in five recent games for both teams shows similar inconsistency.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (30-12-3) is expected for Tampa, providing an elite goaltender advantage over Seattle's Joey Daccord (19-16-5). While the Lightning's record is disappointing, Vasilevskiy's presence combined with superior possession metrics gives Tampa a slight analytical edge. The goaltender gap is the decisive factor here.

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Seattle Kraken at 52.0% win probability.

Looking for deeper analysis on any of these matchups? Try WP Hockey Predictor to generate detailed win probability calculations based on Corsi, expected goals, high-danger chances, and goalie GSAA for every game on today's slate. Our NHL predictions today incorporate the advanced analytics that matter most.