New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction - March 17, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The New York Islanders travel to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 17, 2026, in what shapes up as a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. While the Islanders have found their footing with solid recent form, the Maple Leafs are struggling through a difficult stretch. This Islanders vs Maple Leafs prediction will hinge on which team's underlying metrics translate to goals on the ice.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Islanders enter this contest in respectable shape, sporting a 7-3-0 record over their last 10 games with three wins in their last five outings. They're well-rested with two days between games, allowing them to come in fresh and prepared. More importantly, they've maintained consistency without any roster disruptions.

Toronto, meanwhile, is in crisis mode at 2-5-3 in their last 10. Though they've managed two wins in their last five games, the Maple Leafs are clearly struggling to find offensive rhythm and defensive stability. They have normal rest with one day between games, but rest alone won't solve their underlying problems. The contrast in form here is striking—the Islanders are trending up while Toronto is trending down.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced metrics paint a damning picture for Toronto in this Islanders Maple Leafs pick. The Islanders dominate across every possession and chance-quality metric:

Corsi (CF%): New York leads decisively at 51.15% compared to Toronto's 40.88%, indicating the Islanders are controlling play and generating significantly more shot attempts.

Expected Goals (xGF%): The Islanders hold a substantial edge at 47.96% versus the Maple Leafs' 39.47%. This gap suggests Toronto isn't just being out-possessed—they're being out-chanced in terms of quality scoring opportunities.

High-Danger Chances (HDCF%): Perhaps most tellingly, New York's 48.68% HDCF% beats Toronto's 38.95% by nearly 10 percentage points. These are the chances that matter most—the ones closest to the net with the highest conversion rates. The Islanders are creating significantly better looks.

When a team underperforms this badly across all three tiers of analytics, it's a red flag for their chances to win, especially against an opponent that's generating superior opportunities at every level.

Goalie Matchup

Ilya Sorokin takes the net for New York with a solid 24-15-2 record. The Russian netminder has been dependable and gives the Islanders confidence in their defensive structure. He's a crafty, positional goaltender who thrives in high-volume situations—exactly what he might face given the Islanders' possession advantage.

Joseph Woll is expected to start for Toronto with a 14-11-5 mark. While Woll has shown flashes of competence, he's operating behind a team that's generating far fewer quality chances defensively. Even an average performance from Sorokin should be sufficient to earn the Islanders victory given Toronto's offensive struggles.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's algorithm favors the New York Islanders with a 53.1% win probability versus Toronto's 46.9%. The NHL picks recommendation here is straightforward: take the Islanders.

New York's superior advanced metrics across possession, expected goals, and high-danger chances provide a clear edge. They're the better team right now, they're rested, and they're facing an opponent in freefall. While 53.1% indicates this is competitive—not a runaway favorite—the math points toward the Islanders cashing.

For anytime goalscorer bets, consider Brayden Schenn for the Islanders and William Nylander for Toronto if you're looking for a contrarian angle on the underdog.

Want to run your own prediction for this matchup? Run your own prediction at WP Hockey Predictor and see how different variables shift the probabilities.