Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
March 24 brings a packed 15-game slate with several compelling matchups that could shift playoff positioning. The Hurricanes visit Montreal in a Northeast showdown, the streaking Senators head to Detroit on zero rest, and a battle of elite goalies features Swayman (Boston) against Woll (Toronto) in a critical Atlantic clash. Our advanced analytics—powered by Corsi, expected goals, and goalie metrics—reveal some tight contests and a few clear-cut favorites worth monitoring.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs
Boston enters this matchup as a clear favorite despite Toronto's recent struggles. The Bruins dominate the possession battle with a 49.0% Corsi and a 49.02% expected goals share, while the Maple Leafs bring just a 38.8% CF% and 37.8% xGF%. Toronto has won only one of their last five games, showing little consistency offensively.
Goaltending could be the deciding factor here. Jeremy Swayman (28-14-4) has been outstanding for Boston, while Joseph Woll (14-13-6) carries a losing record into this contest. With the Bruins winning three of their last five, they're trending in the right direction heading into this matchup.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Boston Bruins (59.0%) over Toronto Maple Leafs (41.0%)
Hurricanes vs Canadiens
Carolina brings elite possession metrics to Montreal, posting a remarkable 59.55% Corsi and 62.01% expected goals percentage. The Hurricanes have won four of their last five, establishing themselves as one of the league's hottest teams. Despite playing on just one day of rest—normal schedule—they maintain superior puck control across the board.
Montreal's Jake Dobes (22-8-4) has been impressive between the pipes, but the Canadiens' underlying numbers (51.18% CF%, 52.32% xGF%) don't match Carolina's elite metrics. Goalie Brayden Bussi (26-6-1) anchors the Hurricanes' advantage and should continue the team's winning ways against a Habs squad managing two wins in their last five games.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Carolina Hurricanes (52.8%) over Montreal Canadiens (47.2%)
Senators vs Red Wings
Ottawa faces a significant disadvantage heading into Detroit: they're playing on zero days rest after back-to-back games. Despite this exhaustion factor, our analytics still favor the Senators due to their exceptional underlying metrics. Ottawa boasts a 58.67% Corsi and 62.54% expected goals rate, winning four of their last five games and establishing themselves as a top-tier possession team.
Detroit's John Gibson (26-16-3) has been dependable, but he'll face a relentless offensive attack from Linus Ullmark and the Senators' elite control-the-puck system. The Red Wings' 48.6% CF% and 53.49% xGF% show vulnerability, especially against premium competition. Ottawa's talent should overcome the fatigue factor in this matchup.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Ottawa Senators (54.2%) over Detroit Red Wings (45.8%)
Kraken vs Panthers
This West Coast matchup features two struggling teams, but Florida holds a slight edge. Seattle's 45.03% Corsi and 45.31% xGF% rank among the league's worst, while the Kraken have won only two of their last five. The Kraken enter with a -2 goal differential in those contests, indicating offensive inefficiency.
Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky (25-20-1) faces his own consistency questions, but the Panthers' 53.46% Corsi and superior three-day rest advantage provide critical support. With Jonathan Daccord (19-18-5) between the pipes for Seattle, this remains a competitive affair—but just barely favors the home team.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Seattle Kraken (50.8%) over Florida Panthers (49.2%)
Islanders vs Blackhawks
New York's Ilya Sorokin (26-17-2) provides a significant goaltending edge over Chicago's Arvid Lindstrom (18-19-10), and the Islanders' possession metrics (51.67% CF%, 45.95% xGF%) exceed the Blackhawks' 44.9% Corsi and 39.96% xGF%. The Islanders have captured three of their last five decisions, gaining momentum as March progresses.
Chicago's underlying numbers are concerning—particularly that 39.96% expected goals share, which suggests they're generating limited high-quality chances. Despite both teams operating on minimal rest (one day), the Islanders' structural advantages make them slight favorites in this Atlantic Division showdown.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: New York Islanders (51.1%) over Chicago Blackhawks (48.9%)
Blue Jackets vs Flyers
Columbus arrives as a mild underdog despite boasting superior possession and shot metrics. The Blue Jackets' 50.75% Corsi and 54.7% expected goals rate exceed Philadelphia's 45.57% CF% and 49.87% xGF%, and they've won four of their last five games. Joonas Korpisalo (23-13-8) has been a reliable presence in net.
Philadelphia counters with strong recent form (four wins in five games) and Darcy Kuemper's elite performance (23-11-7). The Flyers' home-ice advantage and extra day of rest provide balance to Columbus's superior underlying metrics, making this a tightly contested affair favoring the home team in a narrow margin.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Columbus Blue Jackets (51.5%) over Philadelphia Flyers (48.5%)
Avalanche vs Penguins
Colorado's elite forward group meets Pittsburgh in a battle of possession dominance. The Avalanche's 58.22% Corsi and 56.31% expected goals percentage showcase dominant control, backed by Semyon Varlamov's stellar 25-5-6 record. Despite winning just two of their last five, Colorado's talent advantage remains evident.
Pittsburgh's Tom Skinner (20-14-9) faces a tough test against Denver's onslaught, particularly given the Penguins' 47.37% CF% and 43.94% xGF%. The Penguins have won three of five, but underlying metrics suggest they've been fortunate; expect regression when facing an elite possession team like Colorado.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Colorado Avalanche (53.0%) over Pittsburgh Penguins (47.0%)
Lightning vs Wild
This matchup features two evenly-matched teams with nearly identical possession rates (Lightning 52.06% CF% vs Wild 52.76% CF%). Minnesota's slightly superior expected goals rate (55.27% xGF%) gives them a theoretical edge, yet Tampa Bay holds the goaltending advantage with Andrei Vasilevskiy (33-12-3)—one of the league's elite netminders.
Both teams are managing their rest similarly (Lightning on one day, Wild on two), but Vasilevskiy's elite GSAA and the Lightning's three-win streak in their last five creates enough separation to favor the home team. This represents one of the day's closest competitions.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (50.1%) over Minnesota Wild (49.9%)
Blues vs Capitals
St. Louis enters as a 53% favorite with an impressive 7-1-2 record and strong recent form (three wins in five games). The Blues' home-ice advantage and two days of rest provide structural benefits, though their possession metrics (47.67% CF%, 48.08% xGF%) remain moderate. Jordan Hofer (17-11-5) has been serviceable between the pipes.
Washington arrives with similar recent success but inferior underlying metrics, posting a 46.26% Corsi and 49.7% xGF%. Logan Thompson's 24-19-6 record indicates reasonable competence, but the Capitals' possession disadvantage makes them slight underdogs despite competitive recent form.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: St. Louis Blues (53.0%) over Washington Capitals (47.0%)
Predators vs Sharks
Nashville dominates this Western Conference matchup on both sides of the puck. The Predators' 45.87% Corsi and 47.84% xGF% exceed San Jose's league-leading mediocre 47.17% CF% and 45.54% xGF%. More importantly, Nashville has won four of their last five while the Sharks manage just one victory in the same span.
Juuse Saros (25-19-7) provides goaltending stability for the Predators, while Vitek Vanecek (19-17-3) anchors a struggling San Jose squad. The combination of Nashville's hot streak, superior metrics, and one day of rest makes the Predators clear favorites at home.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Nashville Predators (56.6%) over San Jose Sharks (43.4%)
Devils vs Stars
New Jersey arrives in Dallas as a slight favorite despite lower seeding expectations. The Devils' elite possession game (57.17% Corsi, 59.38% xGF%) ranks among the league's best, and they've benefited from three full days of rest. Jake Markstrom (21-16-1) remains a capable netminder backing this elite offense.
Dallas counters with Jake Oettinger (29-10-6)—arguably the league's premier goaltender—and respectable 48.79% Corsi and 52.5% xGF%. However, the Stars have won just two of their last five, suggesting inconsistency. New Jersey's superior analytics and rest advantage provide the edge in this matchup.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: New Jersey Devils (51.6%) over Dallas Stars (48.4%)
Golden Knights vs Jets
Vegas presents an intriguing upset opportunity against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights' 56.38% Corsi and 53.65% xGF% dwarf the Jets' 50.31% CF% and 52.48% xGF%, yet Vegas carries a 4-6 record suggesting poor results despite underlying talent. Adin Hill (9-8-3) has been inconsistent in limited action.
Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck (17-19-11) shows concerning underperformance relative to team strength, but the home team's marginal advantages push the needle toward Vegas in this possession battle. The Golden Knights' elite control metrics should eventually translate to victories.
WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Vegas Golden Knights (52.7%) over Winnipeg Jets (47.3%)
Kings vs Flames
Los Angeles brings superior analytics to Calgary