Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Islanders Prediction

Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Islanders Prediction - March 24, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Chicago Blackhawks travel to face the New York Islanders in a matchup that pits two teams heading in opposite directions. The Blackhawks arrive at UBS Arena searching for consistency after a rocky 3-3-4 stretch, while the Islanders have found their footing with three wins in their last five games. This contest features an interesting dynamic between a team still searching for its identity and a squad beginning to click at the right time.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Blackhawks have struggled to maintain momentum, with just one win in their last five games. This inconsistency reflects a team that hasn't yet stabilized its defensive structure or offensive rhythm. Meanwhile, the Islanders are riding a wave of confidence, having captured three victories in their recent five-game stretch. The Islanders' recent form suggests they've tightened up defensively and are executing more effectively in transition—critical elements for success in March hockey.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced statistics paint a clear picture favoring the Islanders in this Blackhawks vs Islanders prediction. New York dominates the possession battle with a 51.67 Corsi percentage compared to Chicago's 44.9, indicating the Islanders are generating more shot attempts and controlling play. The expected goals differential is even more pronounced: the Islanders post a 45.95 xGF% while the Blackhawks sit at just 39.96, revealing a significant quality-of-chances advantage for the home team. Most tellingly, New York's high-danger chances for percentage (45.7 HDCF%) far outpaces Chicago's 37.14, suggesting the Islanders are creating the most dangerous scoring opportunities at a much higher rate.

Goalie Matchup

Superb Sorokin gets the nod for New York, bringing a stellar 26-17-2 record into this contest. The Islanders' netminder has been a stabilizing force throughout the season and should be well-rested for this matchup. Chicago counters with Sebastien Knight (18-19-10), who faces the unenviable task of trying to steal a game against a team controlling play. Knight has struggled with consistency this season, and tonight's assignment against a hot Islanders team represents a significant challenge.

Goalscorer Picks

For Chicago, Connor Bedard remains the most dynamic threat and an excellent anytime goalscorer candidate. However, Frank Nazar offers intriguing value as a dark horse pick, having generated quality chances recently while offering better betting odds than the obvious selections. On the Islanders side, Mathew Barzal is the primary offensive engine and a strong candidate for the scoresheet. Anders Lee serves as the value play—the veteran has been grinding in high-danger areas and could find the back of the net at more favorable odds.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics calculator, the New York Islanders are favored to win this matchup with a 51.1% win probability, compared to the Chicago Blackhawks' 48.9%. The Islanders' superiority in shot volume, expected goals, and high-danger chances—combined with their superior recent form and the home-ice advantage—gives them a slight but meaningful edge. While the Blackhawks possess individual talent and can never be counted out, the underlying metrics favor the Islanders' style of play.

WP Pick: New York Islanders

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