Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
NHL Predictions for March 28, 2026 - Free Picks & Best Bets
March 28 brings a full 15-game slate with some intriguing matchups that could shape the stretch run. The Colorado Avalanche's dominant underlying metrics against Winnipeg, the battle between two hot teams in Montreal and Nashville, and several tight contests make today perfect for diving into advanced analytics. Whether you're looking for free NHL picks or want to understand the data behind each prediction, today's schedule delivers compelling narratives across the league.
Senators vs Lightning
Ottawa arrives in Tampa with stellar underlying numbers—a 54.5% Corsi and 55.87% expected goals share that reflects dominant puck possession. The Senators have won four of their last five games and look like one of the league's hottest teams heading down the stretch. Linus Ullmark has been reliable in net with a 23-10-8 record.
Tampa Bay counters with their own strong metrics (54.44% CF%, 52.62% xGF%) and Andrei Vasilevskiy's impressive 34-12-4 resume. This is a toss-up between two well-matched squads, though Ottawa's superior expected goals generation gives them a slight edge. WP Hockey Predictor's free NHL picks favor the Senators at 50.1% to 49.9%—essentially a coin flip that reflects the competitive nature of this matchup.
Panthers vs Islanders
New York's home crowd and strong record (6-4-0) provide a foundation against a struggling Florida team that sits at 5-5-0. While the Islanders' Corsi advantage is minimal at 52.33%, their expected goals for percentage of 49.28% shows they're generating quality chances. Ilya Sorokin has been confirmed in net and carries a 27-18-2 record with solid underlying support.
Florida's xGF% of just 48.28% indicates they're being out-chanced, and their 2-win performance over the last five games adds to concerns. The analytics favor the home team here. New York Islanders at 53.7% represents our NHL predictions for this Atlantic Division contest, suggesting the Islanders should be favored in what appears to be a mismatch in puck possession quality.
Ducks vs Oilers
Anaheim enters Edmonton with strong recent form (4 wins in last 5) despite modest underlying numbers—51.53% Corsi and 49.41% xGF%. The Ducks are riding confidence, but the analytics suggest they're playing somewhat above their sustainability level. Linus Dostal has been excellent with a 29-15-3 record.
Edmonton's situation is intriguing: their 48.52% Corsi looks concerning, but their 52.93% xGF% shows they're generating dangerous chances when it matters. Connor Ingram steps in with a more modest 12-8-2 record in limited action. The expected goals advantage favors the Oilers at home. WP Hockey Predictor projects Edmonton at 50.6%, a marginal home-ice edge that reflects Edmonton's quality scoring chances despite possession struggles.
Wild vs Bruins
Minnesota brings one of today's most impressive analytical profiles: 53.03% Corsi and 56.08% expected goals for percentage indicate dominant play. The Wild have won three of five and Filip Gustavsson (26-12-6) provides a reliable net. Boston, meanwhile, sits at a concerning 47.7% CF% and 45.77% xGF% despite playing at home with an extra day of rest.
This represents a clear analytical edge for Minnesota despite Boston's reputation. The Bruins' underlying metrics suggest they're struggling to generate sustained offensive pressure, while Minnesota's 56% xGF% is elite territory. Our NHL predictions today strongly favor the visitors: Minnesota Wild at 55.1%. This is one of the day's most confident picks based on the underlying data.
Stars vs Penguins
Dallas shows modest offensive generation (49.58% CF%, 48.58% xGF%) but comes in with Jake Oettinger (29-11-6) providing excellent goaltending. The Stars have struggled with just one win in their last five, raising sustainability questions despite their record.
Pittsburgh's 48.03% Corsi and 46.26% xGF% are similarly concerning, though Tristan Skinner (21-14-9) will get the nod. Both teams are generating below-average chances, making this a low-event affair where goaltending will be paramount. Dallas Stars at 51.4% catches the slight edge, likely driven by Oettinger's superior track record and the away team's superior recent results despite limited sample size.
Devils vs Hurricanes
New Jersey arrives with elite underlying metrics (55.96% CF%, 58.45% xGF%) and four wins in their last five games, positioning themselves as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Jarcrom Markstrom (22-16-1) provides solid goaltending support for the visitors.
Carolina represents a fascinating analytical counterpoint: despite New Jersey's excellent metrics, Carolina's home-ice advantage and elite numbers of their own (60.17% CF%, 60.18% xGF%) paired with Antti Raanta (26-6-1)—who has a ridiculous .957 save percentage—create a fascinating dynamic. Carolina's three days' rest adds another layer. However, New Jersey's superior recent form slightly edges out the Hurricanes. New Jersey Devils at 50.1% reflects an extremely close matchup between two of the league's best teams, with the slight edge to the Devils' momentum.
Sharks vs Blue Jackets
San Jose continues to struggle: 2-6-2 record with zero wins in their last five games and a concerning 48.4% Corsi, 47.43% xGF%. Alexander Nedeljkovic (13-13-4) faces another test against a superior opponent.
Columbus dominates this matchup analytically: 51.42% CF%, 55.47% xGF%, and three wins in their last five games. Joonas Korpisalo (24-14-8) returns to face a Sharks team that simply cannot generate offensive chances. Columbus Blue Jackets at 56.2% reflects one of today's clearer analytical advantages, with the home team's superior metrics and recent form providing confidence.
Kraken vs Sabres
Seattle struggles significantly (3-6-1) with poor underlying metrics of 44.64% Corsi and 43.94% xGF%, indicating fundamental offensive generation issues. The Kraken have just one win in five games. John Daccord (19-18-6) faces an uphill battle.
Buffalo presents a compelling situation: despite playing on zero days' rest after a back-to-back, the Sabres' 53.43% CF% and 53.77% xGF% show they generate quality chances. Ukko Luukkonen (17-8-3) has been excellent despite the fatigue factor. The metrics strongly favor Buffalo despite the back-to-back disadvantage. Buffalo Sabres at 57.3% suggests the home team's underlying superiority overwhelms the rest disadvantage—a bold analytical statement that rewards quality chance generation.
Maple Leafs vs Blues
Toronto arrives with concerning metrics: 39.12% Corsi and 40.53% xGF% represent league-bottom possession and chance generation. Even with two days' rest, the Maple Leafs (4-4-2) aren't generating the volume needed to consistently win. Joseph Woll (15-13-6) faces an unfavorable matchup.
St. Louis dominates the analytics: 48.54% CF%, 49.32% xGF%, and three wins in their last five games. The Blues are one of the league's hottest teams, and Jordan Hofer (19-11-5) will face a Toronto team that simply cannot generate consistent offense. St. Louis Blues at 54.9% reflects a clear analytical advantage for the home team, with Toronto's possession metrics among the league's worst.
Canadiens vs Predators
Montreal enters with four wins in their last five and solid underlying metrics of 47.78% CF% and 50.6% xGF%. Jakob Dobes (24-8-4) provides excellent goaltending. The Canadiens represent a team hitting their stride at the right time.
Nashville matches Montreal's recent form (4 wins in 5) with a 45.32% CF% and 43.63% xGF%, suggesting slightly inferior underlying play. Juuse Saros (26-19-7) remains a quality starter. Montreal's expected goals edge gives them a marginal advantage. Montreal Canadiens at 50.7% reflects a nearly even matchup where Montreal's superior chance generation provides the slightest of edges in what shapes up as a competitive battle.
Jets vs Avalanche
Winnipeg sits at 4-4-2 with modest metrics (47.18% CF%, 48.34% xGF%) and just two wins in their last five. Connor Hellebuyck (18-20-11) carries a concerning record that reflects team performance issues beyond his control.
Colorado represents one of today's most dominant analytical profiles: 58.24% Corsi and 58.29% xGF% are elite numbers that place them among the league's best possession teams. Four wins in five games paired with Scott Wedgewood's excellent 26-5-6 record create a lopsided matchup. Colorado Avalanche at 60.8% is one of our most confident free NHL picks today, reflecting significant analytical advantages in both possession and chance generation.
Flyers vs Red Wings
Philadelphia brings strong recent form (4 wins in 5) with solid metrics: 48.13% CF% and an impressive 55.6% xGF% that indicates elite scoring chance generation. Danny Vladar (23-12-7) provides reliable goaltending for the visitors.
Detroit faces a back-to-back situation after yesterday's game, which compounds their challenges. While their 48.97% CF% is respectable, the 52.68% xGF% doesn't compensate for the rest disadvantage. Calvin Talbot (12-8-5) gets the nod. Philadelphia's superior recent form and possession quality edge the Flyers. Philadelphia Flyers at 53.0% reflects the visitors' advantage despite Detroit's home-ice, with Philadelphia's metrics and Detroit's back-to-back fatigue favoring the road team.
Utah vs Kings
Utah Mammoth enters with mixed indicators: 52.7% Corsi shows good possession but only 47.8% xGF% suggests they're not converting that possession into quality chances. Two wins in five games add concern. Karel Vejmelka (32-19-3) carries an impressive record.
Los Angeles counters with 53.04% CF% and a superior 54.44% xGF%, indicating better chance quality despite similar possession levels. Darcy Kuemper (18-13-13) has been middling. Los Angeles' expected goals advantage provides the edge. Los Angeles Kings at 53.4% reflects the home team's