Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction

Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction - March 28, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Dallas Stars travel to Pittsburgh for a crucial late-March matchup against the Penguins, two teams fighting for playoff positioning as the season enters its final stretch. Both squads are hovering around .500 hockey over their last five games, but the underlying metrics tell a more nuanced story about which team has the edge. This Stars vs Penguins prediction will break down the advanced analytics, goalie performance, and scoring opportunities that could decide the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Dallas is 5-4-1 on the season and managed just one win in their last five games, a concerning stretch that suggests inconsistency despite having solid underlying metrics. Pittsburgh sits at 5-3-2 with two wins in their last five, giving them a slight momentum advantage heading into this matchup. Both teams have normal one-day rest between games, so fatigue isn't a factor for either side. The Penguins' better recent record suggests they're building some confidence, while the Stars will be looking to arrest a slump that could derail their playoff hopes.

Advanced Stats Comparison

When we dig into the advanced analytics, Dallas holds a measurable edge in shot generation and expected goal metrics. The Stars are posting a 49.58 Corsi percentage—meaning they're controlling the puck and generating more shot attempts at 5-on-5—compared to Pittsburgh's 48.03. Dallas also leads in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 48.58 versus Pittsburgh's 46.26, indicating they're creating better quality chances overall.

However, Pittsburgh has one critical advantage: they're generating higher-danger chances. The Penguins' HDCF% sits at 51.37, compared to Dallas's 48.15. This metric matters because it represents the most threatening scoring opportunities—shots from prime scoring areas—and Pittsburgh's edge here suggests they're converting their limited chances into scoring situations more efficiently.

Goalie Matchup

Jake Oettinger remains one of the NHL's elite netminders for Dallas, carrying a strong 29-11-6 record into this game. The Stars' starter has been reliable all season and will be critical in keeping Dallas competitive. Pittsburgh counters with Sergei Skinner, who's at 21-14-9 on the campaign. While Skinner has been solid, Oettinger's track record gives Dallas a meaningful advantage in the crease—a factor that often determines tight games in late March.

Goalscorer Picks

For Dallas: Jason Robertson is the primary anytime goalscorer candidate, as he's consistently one of the Stars' most dangerous forwards. Matt Duchene offers value as a dark horse pick, a productive veteran who can find the back of the net at better odds than Robertson.

For Pittsburgh: Bryan Rust is Pittsburgh's go-to scoring threat and should be heavily considered in any anytime goalscorer bets. Rickard Rakell provides value as a dark horse option, a player generating quality chances at a price that reflects lower public attention.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's algorithm, the Dallas Stars are favored to win this matchup with a 51.4% win probability, compared to Pittsburgh's 48.6% chance. This is a tight contest, but Dallas's edge in Corsi and expected goals—combined with the goaltending advantage of Oettinger over Skinner—tips the scales slightly in their favor. While Pittsburgh's high-danger chance generation keeps them in the game, Dallas's overall control metrics and superior puck possession give them the lean.

This is a classic pick 'em game that could go either way, but the analytics favor Dallas by a small margin. Run your own prediction to see how different variables impact the outcome.