NHL Predictions for March 31, 2026 - Free Picks & Best Bets

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

March 31st brings a loaded 10-game slate with several compelling matchups that could shift playoff positioning heading into April. The Philadelphia Flyers' elite underlying metrics clash with the Washington Capitals, while the Carolina Hurricanes' dominant Corsi advantage tests the Columbus Blue Jackets. We've got intriguing contrasts between team form and statistical edges across the board—perfect material for NHL predictions today that go beyond simple records.

Bruins vs Stars

Boston enters as the statistical slight favorite despite Dallas holding a marginally better record. The Bruins have won 4 of their last 5 games, showcasing the consistency expected from a top-tier team. While Dallas boasts respectable underlying numbers (48.51% CF%, 46.8% xGF%), Boston's depth and Swayman's strong play (30-15-4) give the home team an edge.

Oettinger (30-11-6) has been stellar for the Stars, but he'll be facing a Bruins outfit that generates quality chances consistently. The matchup essentially comes down to Dallas's ability to leverage their shot-generation metrics against Boston's defensive structure and goaltending.

WP Hockey Predictor's free NHL picks favor Boston Bruins at 51.8% (Dallas 48.2%) in a tight affair.

Sabres vs Islanders

This is a matchup with a significant contextual advantage favoring Buffalo. The Sabres boast elite possession metrics (54.19% CF%, 52.94% xGF%) and come off 2 days rest. New York, meanwhile, is playing on zero days rest after a back-to-back, which typically hampers puck movement and defensive structure—a serious concern against one of the league's most dominant teams in the analytics.

Luukkonen (18-8-3) has had a strong season and should benefit from Buffalo's superior underlying metrics. Rittich (14-9-3) will need to be exceptional to steal this game given the fatigue factor and statistical disadvantage the Islanders face.

WP Hockey Predictor predicts Buffalo Sabres at 56.1% (New York 43.9%), with the back-to-back context playing a major role in Buffalo's advantage.

Lightning vs Canadiens

Tampa Bay's remarkable underlying numbers (55.68% CF%, 57.1% xGF%) make them the objective favorite in this Eastern Conference battle, despite Montreal's impressive 7-3 record. The Canadiens have won 5 straight, but those victories mask slightly underwhelming possession metrics (46.45% CF%, 51.16% xGF%) relative to the elite offense they're facing.

Vasilevskiy (35-12-4) remains one of the league's most consistent netminders and will face Montreal's top offense. Dobes (25-8-4) has had a strong season, but stopping an elite Lightning offensive attack will be a tall task. Tampa's shot generation advantage is substantial.

WP Hockey Predictor favors Tampa Bay Lightning at 50.9% (Montreal 49.1%) in what should be a competitive game between two of the East's best teams.

Panthers vs Senators

Ottawa enters this matchup with superior possession numbers (52.84% CF%, 54.0% xGF%) and has been rotating their lineup effectively with 2 days rest. Florida's underlying metrics (52.25% CF%, 46.06% xGF%) tell a concerning story—their Corsi is respectable, but their expected goals generation lags significantly, suggesting unsustainability in recent results (1 win in last 5).

Ullmark (23-10-8) has been a stabilizing force for Ottawa's defense, while Bobrovsky (26-21-1) carries a concerning GSAA profile despite decent volume numbers. The advanced metrics strongly favor the Senators here.

WP Hockey Predictor predicts Ottawa Senators at 56.7% (Florida 43.3%), with the Senators' analytical edge reflecting their superior team performance.

Rangers vs Devils

New Jersey holds a meaningful advantage in both possession (53.47% CF%) and expected goals (55.19% xGF%), backed by a 3-win stretch in their last 5 games. The Rangers, conversely, show concerning underlying numbers (46.07% CF%, 44.91% xGF%) despite their veteran roster and recent personnel additions.

Markstrom (22-17-1) and Shesterkin (23-16-6) represent a near push in goaltending, but New Jersey's superior team metrics should carry the day. New York has the higher ceiling given Shesterkin's potential for brilliance, but the raw data favors New Jersey's balanced attack.

WP Hockey Predictor favors New Jersey Devils at 51.9% (New York 48.1%) in a competitive matchup between division rivals.

Penguins vs Red Wings

Detroit enters this contest as the mathematical favorite despite playing the better overall team on paper. Pittsburgh's back-to-back situation—zero days rest—becomes a critical liability. Red Wings' underlying metrics (48.66% CF%, 52.04% xGF%) are solid, while Pittsburgh's (48.57% CF%, 46.88% xGF%) don't compensate for the fatigue factor.

Gibson (27-18-3) confirmed in net for Detroit should see a manageable workload given Pittsburgh's situation. The Penguins' depth makes them dangerous regardless, but the back-to-back context tilts this decidedly in Detroit's favor for NHL picks tonight.

WP Hockey Predictor predicts Detroit Red Wings at 55.2% (Pittsburgh 44.8%), with the back-to-back heavily influencing the algorithmic output.

Flyers vs Capitals

Philadelphia represents one of the league's elite teams right now—an 8-1-1 record backed by exceptional underlying metrics (xGF% 57.28%). The Capitals enter with a solid 6-2-2 mark but underwhelming possession numbers (44.84% CF%, 48.78% xGF%). This is a classic matchup between elite performance metrics (Philadelphia) and respectable but not elite team structures (Washington).

Vladar (24-12-7) has been a stabilizing force for Philadelphia's elite offense, while Thompson (26-20-6) faces what could be a significant volume test. The Flyers' offensive generation advantage is the most pronounced on today's slate.

WP Hockey Predictor predicts Philadelphia Flyers at 57.5% (Washington 42.5%), making the Flyers among the strongest favorites in our free NHL picks for March 31st.

Blue Jackets vs Hurricanes

Carolina enters this matchup with one of the league's most dominant Corsi ratings (61.59% CF%), paired with an exceptional 60.11% xGF%. Columbus's defensive structure (49.14% CF%, 49.61% xGF%) is acceptable but not sufficient to contain a team operating at the possession level the Hurricanes currently achieve.

Bussi (27-6-1) has been elite, while Greaves (24-14-9) will face heavy volume. Carolina's 3-win stretch in their last 5 reflects a team hitting its stride offensively, making them a serious threat in any playoff scenario.

WP Hockey Predictor favors Carolina Hurricanes at 56.7% (Columbus 43.3%), with the Hurricanes' historic possession advantage being the deciding factor.

Blackhawks vs Jets

Winnipeg enters as the clear favorite with superior metrics across the board (47.72% CF%, 51.01% xGF%) and a 3-win run in their last 5. Chicago's underlying numbers paint a bleak picture (41.77% CF%, 35.36% xGF%), with only 1 win in their last 5 games. The gap in expected goals generation is particularly concerning for the Blackhawks.

Hellebuyck (19-20-11) should see regular work behind a superior team. Knight (18-21-10) faces difficult odds given Chicago's inability to generate quality chances consistently. This is one of the more pronounced talent and metric advantages on the slate.

WP Hockey Predictor predicts Winnipeg Jets at 54.7% (Chicago 45.3%), reflecting Winnipeg's clear advantage in both team structure and recent form.

Oilers vs Kraken

Edmonton's recent form (3 wins in last 5) combines with strong underlying metrics (49.16% CF%, 54.08% xGF%) to position them as comfortable favorites over a struggling Seattle outfit. The Kraken's metrics (45.29% CF%, 45.7% xGF%) and record (3-5-2) tell a consistent story of team underperformance.

Ingram (13-8-2) enters with limited volume but excellent recent play, while Daccord (19-18-6) carries a heavy workload against an offense generating dangerous chances at elite rates. Edmonton's depth and goaltending advantage make this a manageable evening for the home team.

WP Hockey Predictor favors Edmonton Oilers at 52.9% (Seattle 47.1%) in what should be a relatively straightforward victory.

Today's slate offers excellent opportunities for analytical-minded bettors looking to leverage advanced metrics in their decision-making. Whether you're tracking the back-to-back situations, elite possession teams, or underlying metrics that diverge from surface records, Try WP Hockey Predictor to dive deeper into each matchup with our full suite of Corsi, expected goals, high-danger chance, and goalie analytics.