Colorado Avalanche vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction

Colorado Avalanche vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction - March 20, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Colorado Avalanche travel to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on March 20, 2026, in a matchup that pits one of the league's dominant possession teams against a squad fighting for consistency. This Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction showcases the importance of underlying metrics and situational factors in determining game outcomes. Colorado enters as the clear favorites, but Chicago's recent form and the Blackhawks' need for points make this a matchup worth examining closely.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Avalanche have maintained solid form with a 6-3-1 record, though their recent stretch shows just 1 win in their last 5 games—a concerning trend for a team expected to compete at the highest level. Despite the mixed results, Colorado hasn't played back-to-back games and enters this contest well-rested with normal schedule rest between games.

Chicago presents an interesting contrast. The Blackhawks sport a 4-3-3 record with 3 wins in their last 5 games, indicating a team building momentum heading into March. However, a critical factor looms over this matchup: Chicago is playing on zero days rest, coming directly off a game with no recovery time. This back-to-back situation puts significant strain on the Blackhawks' legs, depth lineup, and goaltending—a factor that cannot be overlooked when evaluating this contest.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The underlying analytics paint a decisive picture favoring Colorado. The Avalanche dominate in shot-attempt metrics with a 58.4% Corsi rate (CF%), compared to Chicago's 45.1%. This 13-point gap reveals Colorado's significant edge in controlling puck possession and shot volume.

Expected goals tell a similar story. Colorado's 57.5% xGF% stands well above Chicago's 41.91%, indicating that the Avalanche generate more quality scoring chances. Most tellingly, Colorado's high-danger chance rate of 57.2% HDCF% dwarfs Chicago's 40.63%, suggesting the Avalanche convert their chances into legitimate, dangerous opportunities at a much higher rate.

These aren't marginal differences—they represent substantial advantages in the statistical categories that predict wins over large sample sizes. The Avalanche's ability to sustain offensive pressure and limit opposing chances is exactly the type of advantage that translates to wins, especially against a fatigued opponent.

Goalie Matchup

Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to start for Colorado and brings elite credentials into this matchup. With an 18-8-1 record, Blackwood has been a workhorse and a stabilizing force for the Avalanche. His performance directly correlates with Colorado's success.

Alex Soderblom gets the start for Chicago on the back end of a back-to-back. While Soderblom has experience, his 6-10-3 record reflects a goaltender struggling this season. Starting a struggling goalie while fatigued on the second night of a back-to-back is a compounding disadvantage that Chicago cannot afford against Colorado's possession-dominant attack.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's algorithm favors the Colorado Avalanche with a 52.4% win probability versus Chicago's 47.6%. Our Avalanche Blackhawks pick is Colorado Avalanche to win.

The Avalanche's decisive advantages in Corsi, expected goals, and high-danger chances—combined with superior goaltending and full rest against a fatigued opponent—create a compelling case for Colorado. While 52.4% indicates a relatively close contest, the weight of evidence favors the visitors. Chicago's back-to-back situation and Soderblom's struggles compound their analytical disadvantages.

For anytime goalscorer picks, consider Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado or Andrew Mangiapane for Chicago, though the Avalanche's edge in generating chances favors MacKinnon in this scenario.

Run your own prediction to see how different variables impact this matchup.