Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Rangers Prediction - March 27, 2026
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
The Chicago Blackhawks travel to Madison Square Garden on March 27 to face the New York Rangers in what shapes up as a tight, evenly matched contest. Chicago enters this matchup fresh off a 2-win stretch in their last five games, while New York searches for answers after a prolonged winless drought. Both teams sit in the middle of the pack at 4-3-3 (Chicago) and 4-5-1 (Rangers), setting the stage for a game that could shift momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.
Team Form & Recent Performance
Chicago's recent uptick has been encouraging, winning two of their last five outings and showing signs of stabilization after earlier inconsistency. However, the Blackhawks face a significant scheduling disadvantage: they're playing on zero days rest after a back-to-back, which could impact their legs and decision-making late in the game.
The Rangers, conversely, are in the midst of a troubling stretch with zero wins in their last five games (0-5-0). This extended winless streak has compounded pressure at Madison Square Garden, though the team does have the advantage of normal rest heading into this contest. With one day of preparation, New York will have a fresh roster ready to capitalize on Chicago's fatigue factor.
Advanced Stats Comparison
The advanced analytics paint an interesting picture of underlying performance. The Rangers edge Chicago in Corsi (CF%) with 45.82% compared to the Blackhawks' 42.07%, indicating New York generates more shot attempts at even strength. That advantage extends to Expected Goals (xGF%), where the Rangers lead 43.59% to 36.88%—a meaningful gap that suggests Chicago is being outshot and outchanced at a structural level.
Most tellingly, the Rangers dominate in High-Danger Chances (HDCF%) with 43.26% versus Chicago's 32.86%. This is the most predictive advanced metric for future goal-scoring, indicating New York is generating prime scoring opportunities at a significantly higher rate. Despite their winless streak, the Rangers have been creating the right chances; they simply haven't capitalized on them.
Goalie Matchup
Arvid Soderblom takes the net for Chicago with a 7-11-3 record. The young netminder has faced considerable adversity this season and will need a strong performance to steal a game on the road against a high-danger chance-generating Rangers offense.
Igor Shesterkin draws the start for New York with an impressive 22-16-6 record. The Rangers' elite goalie has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season and should be well-positioned to stop Chicago's limited high-danger opportunities. Shesterkin's track record makes him a reliable floor in this matchup.
Goalscorer Picks
For Chicago, Connor McDavid's teammate Connor Bedard remains the prime anytime goalscorer pick. The generational talent is always capable of breaking through against any defense. Tyler Bertuzzi offers strong value as a dark horse pick, generating consistent high-danger chances while playing at better odds than top-line forwards.
On the Rangers side, J.T. Miller is the obvious choice to find the back of the net and snap this winless streak. Alexis Lafrenière presents compelling value, quietly accumulating high-danger chances and offering better betting odds than the more publicized Rangers forwards.
Prediction
According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the Chicago Blackhawks edge the New York Rangers with a 50.1% win probability, compared to New York's 49.9%. This is nearly a coin flip, reflecting how tightly matched these teams truly are.
While the Rangers possess superior underlying metrics and the home ice advantage, Chicago's recent form and the fact they have momentum on their side—combined with New York's winless drought—gives the road team a razor-thin edge in this matchup. The back-to-back factor works against Chicago, but the Rangers' inability to finish despite generating high-danger chances is the key differentiator.
Run your own prediction with the WP Hockey Predictor calculator to see how different variables shift the outcome.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.