Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils Prediction

Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils Prediction - April 02, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Washington Capitals travel to New Jersey for a pivotal late-season matchup against the Devils on April 2, 2026. Both teams are in similar situations—sitting at 6 wins in their last 10 games and hungry for wins in the stretch run. This Capitals vs Devils prediction game features two well-matched opponents with contrasting playing styles, making for one of the more intriguing NHL picks of the evening.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Washington enters this contest with a 6-2-2 record across their recent sample, capturing 3 wins in their last 5 games. The Capitals are riding decent momentum and come into New Jersey with a normal schedule—one day of rest separates them from their previous outing, eliminating any back-to-back fatigue concerns.

New Jersey sits at 6-4-0 in their last 10, also posting 3 wins over their final five games. The Devils, like the Capitals, have a full day of rest and are not playing on a back-to-back, so both teams arrive well-rested. This even footing sets the stage for a matchup decided primarily by on-ice execution and underlying performance metrics rather than injury or fatigue circumstances.

Advanced Stats Comparison

Here's where the Capitals vs Devils prediction becomes more nuanced. New Jersey holds a clear edge in possession-based metrics and expected performance indicators. The Devils post a 53.27 Corsi For percentage (CF%) compared to Washington's 44.01—a significant 9-point gap that indicates New Jersey is generating more shot attempts and controlling play for longer stretches.

The expected goals comparison (xGF%) further supports New Jersey's underlying advantage: the Devils sit at 55.36% compared to Washington's 47.32%. When teams are outshot in terms of quality chances, regression typically follows. Additionally, New Jersey dominates the high-danger chances metric (HDCF%), posting 51.33% to Washington's 44.9%—suggesting the Devils are creating closer, more lethal scoring opportunities at higher rates.

Despite these analytical advantages favoring New Jersey, this Capitals Devils pick isn't a clear-cut case. Washington's recent 3-win stretch and structured team approach keep them competitive, and their 50.2% win probability reflects the inherent unpredictability of short-term NHL results.

Goalie Matchup

Washington's L. Thompson enters with a solid 27-20-6 record, while New Jersey counters with J. Markstrom at 22-18-1. Thompson's win-loss record is superior, though both goalies are performing at roughly similar levels in terms of this season's overall body of work. Markstrom's recent form and the Devils' shot volume advantage could create more high-leverage saves, potentially swinging momentum in critical moments.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's Pick: Washington Capitals (50.2% win probability)

Despite New Jersey's advanced analytics edge, our Capitals vs Devils prediction slightly favors Washington at 50.2% to 49.8%. While the Devils' superior Corsi, expected goals, and high-danger chances metrics suggest they should control the game, Washington's recent form, goaltending stability, and the razor-thin margin between these two teams make this a statistical toss-up. In matchups this close, recent performance trends and team momentum often prove decisive—and Washington's 3-win surge gives them the narrowest of edges.

For NHL picks tonight, consider Dylan Strome as an anytime goalscorer option for Washington, while Jack Hughes remains a compelling selection for New Jersey's side.

Want to run your own analysis? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and adjust variables based on live odds and late-breaking information.