New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals Prediction

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

New Jersey Devils vs Washington Capitals Prediction - March 20, 2026

The New Jersey Devils travel to the nation's capital to face the Washington Capitals on March 20, 2026, in what shapes up as a competitive matchup between two teams riding positive momentum. Both squads have earned three wins over their last five games, setting the stage for an intriguing battle that could swing either way on paper—but the underlying metrics tell a slightly different story.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Both the Devils and Capitals come into this contest with identical recent records: 3 wins in their last 5 games. The Devils hold a 7-3-0 mark over their recent stretch, while the Capitals sit at 5-4-1. Both teams are enjoying relatively healthy schedules with one day of rest between their last outing and this matchup, meaning neither squad enters this Devils vs Capitals prediction with fatigue concerns. Neither team is playing a back-to-back, so expect both sides to bring full energy to the ice.

The Devils have demonstrated consistency in their play, whereas the Capitals' record reflects slightly more volatility—the extra loss and overtime setback suggest Washington has had some tighter contests. This marginal difference in recent performance gives New Jersey a slight edge in terms of overall momentum heading into the Devils Capitals pick.

Advanced Stats Comparison

This is where the Devils vs Capitals prediction becomes truly revealing. New Jersey dominates across all three major advanced metrics:

Corsi (CF%): The Devils lead decisively at 57.05%, compared to Washington's 47.63%. This 9.4-point advantage means New Jersey is controlling play and generating significantly more shot attempts at even strength.

Expected Goals (xGF%): The Devils' 59.05% xGF% dwarfs Washington's 49.06%. A 10-point gap in expected goals is substantial and suggests the Devils are not only taking more shots but taking higher-quality scoring chances.

High-Danger Chances (HDCF%): Perhaps most tellingly, New Jersey's 52.89% HDCF% edge over Washington's 46.59% indicates the Devils are consistently creating better opportunities in the areas that matter most—prime scoring real estate.

These advanced statistics paint a clear picture: the Devils have been the better team from a possession and shot quality standpoint, which directly influences our NHL picks and the Devils Capitals pick.

Goalie Matchup

Jespер Markstrom takes the net for New Jersey, carrying a 21-16-1 record into this contest. His .914 save percentage places him in the middle tier of league starters. Washington counters with Logan Thompson, whose 23-19-5 record is slightly better, though Thompson's underlying save percentage is comparable. Markstrom's recent form and the Devils' superior defensive structure (reflected in their advanced stats) should give the edge to New Jersey's goaltending position.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the New Jersey Devils are favored to win this matchup with a 51.5% win probability, compared to Washington's 48.5%. While this is nearly a toss-up on the surface, the Devils' commanding advantage in possession metrics, shot quality, and high-danger chances provides the statistical foundation for their slight edge.

The Devils' 57% Corsi and 59% expected goals percentage represent genuine dominance in underlying play. When you combine superior possession control with Markstrom's expected performance and the team's recent three-win stretch, New Jersey enters this game as a light favorite.

For anytime goalscorer picks, monitor Cody Glass for New Jersey and Tom Wilson for Washington as premium scoring threats.

Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to see how different variables impact this matchup.