New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers Prediction

New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers Prediction - March 18, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers square off in a critical Metropolitan Division matchup on March 18, 2026. Both teams arrive at this contest in strong form, but the underlying analytics tell a compelling story about which squad holds the edge. With playoff implications heating up, this divisional battle has all the makings of a tight, well-played affair between two well-matched opponents.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Devils enter with a 6-4-0 record and have won three of their last five games, demonstrating solid momentum heading into this matchup. New Jersey is operating with a normal schedule, having one day of rest since their last contest—no back-to-back fatigue to manage.

The Rangers post a 6-2-2 record and have captured four wins in their last five outings, representing slightly superior recent form. Like New Jersey, the Rangers also enjoy one day of rest with no back-to-back complications. New York's extra win in the recent stretch gives them a marginal momentum advantage, though both teams are clearly playing well-rounded hockey entering this divisional clash.

Advanced Stats Comparison

This is where the Devils vs Rangers prediction becomes particularly interesting. The advanced analytics heavily favor New Jersey's underlying performance.

In shot-attempt metrics, the Devils dominate with a 55.99% Corsi rate, meaning they're generating significantly more scoring chances at even strength. The Rangers, by contrast, sit at 47.36% CF%—a substantial 8.6-point deficit that suggests New Jersey is controlling the pace and territorial play.

Expected goals data reinforces this trend. The Devils boast a 57.4% xGF%, indicating they're creating higher-quality chances relative to what they allow. The Rangers register 46.43% xGF%, a 10.97-point gap that signals New Jersey's offensive efficiency advantage.

High-danger chance creation tells a similar story. The Devils lead 50.99% HDCF% versus the Rangers' 46.75%. While this margin is narrower, it still suggests New Jersey is generating more dangerous scoring opportunities from in front of the net—a crucial factor in close playoff-race games.

Goalie Matchup

Joren Markstrom is expected to start for the Devils, entering the game with a 20-16-1 record. Despite the modest win total, Markstrom's advanced metrics have been strong, aligning with New Jersey's overall team performance edge.

Igor Shesterkin takes the net for the Rangers, posting an impressive 22-13-6 record. Shesterkin remains one of the league's premier goaltenders, but he'll face a Devils team that's generating elite underlying metrics. This matchup of a hot goalie versus a team in peak performance creates an intriguing dynamic—can Shesterkin steal a game, or will New Jersey's dominance in shot volume and quality prove decisive?

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor gives the New Jersey Devils a 51.0% win probability versus the New York Rangers' 49.0% chance of victory. Our Devils vs Rangers pick favors New Jersey by the slimmest of margins.

The Devils Rangers pick is predicated on New Jersey's superior advanced metrics across all three key categories: shot attempts, expected goals, and high-danger chances. While the Rangers have slightly better recent results and Shesterkin's elite goaltending, the underlying numbers suggest the Devils are the better team on the ice. In a tight, evenly-matched divisional battle, those marginal advantages often prove decisive.

For a deeper dive into how these factors combine to produce this prediction, run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and adjust variables to test different scenarios.