Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction

Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction - March 28, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Winnipeg Jets travel to Denver to face the Colorado Avalanche in a matchup that showcases a clear contrast in recent form and underlying performance. The Avalanche have been one of the league's hottest teams, while the Jets are fighting to find consistency heading into the final stretch of the season. This Jets vs Avalanche prediction breaks down the analytics, goalie battle, and key factors that will determine the outcome on March 28.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Colorado enters this contest riding strong momentum with four wins in their last five games, establishing themselves as a playoff contender firing on all cylinders. The Avalanche's 6-3-1 record demonstrates the kind of consistency that wins games in March, when playoff positioning matters most.

Winnipeg, meanwhile, has struggled to build momentum at 4-4-2 over their last 10 games, winning just two of their last five contests. The Jets are searching for answers as they navigate a critical portion of the schedule. Both teams have normal rest with one day between games, so fatigue won't be a deciding factor in this Jets Avalanche pick.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The analytics paint a damning picture for the Jets in this matchup. Colorado dominates across every meaningful underlying metric: a 58.24% Corsi percentage compared to Winnipeg's 47.18%, a 58.29% expected goals share versus 48.34%, and most impressively, a 59.76% high-danger chances advantage against the Jets' 45.6%. These aren't marginal differences—they represent a significant gap in shot quality and control.

The Avalanche are generating better scoring chances at five-on-five, controlling play in dangerous areas, and limiting the Jets' opportunities to create offense. This is the kind of analytics edge that translates to wins in the regular season and playoffs alike.

Goalie Matchup

Scott Wedgewood has been exceptional for Colorado this season, posting a 26-5-6 record that ranks among the league's elite. The Avalanche backup has stolen wins and provided stability in net. Winnipeg counters with Connor Hellebuyck (18-20-11), a proven starter who has faced a tougher workload but remains a capable netminder. The edge here belongs to Wedgewood, whose superior record and recent performance give Colorado an advantage between the pipes.

Goalscorer Picks

Mark Scheifele remains the obvious anytime goalscorer play for Winnipeg—his consistency and shot volume make him a reliable choice. For added value, Gabriel Vilardi offers a dark horse option who has been generating high-danger chances and presents better odds than Scheifele.

Nathan MacKinnon is Colorado's premier goalscorer and the logical selection for either team in this matchup. For bettors seeking value, Brock Nelson has been productive on the Avalanche's bottom-six and provides an intriguing alternative at more attractive odds.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the Colorado Avalanche are favored to win with a 60.8% probability, while the Winnipeg Jets sit at 39.2%. The pick is Colorado Avalanche.

This prediction is grounded in Colorado's dominance across shot metrics, their superior recent form, and Wedgewood's exceptional play in goal. The Avalanche's ability to generate high-danger chances while limiting Winnipeg's opportunities gives them a clear path to victory. The Jets will need an exceptional effort and goal-scoring performance from Scheifele and company to steal this game in Denver.

Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to explore different scenarios and see how specific factors affect the outcome.