Winnipeg Jets vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction

Winnipeg Jets vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction - March 31, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Winnipeg Jets travel to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on March 31, 2026, in a matchup that pits a team riding positive momentum against one struggling to find consistency. With both teams relatively healthy and clear statistical separation in play quality, this Jets vs Blackhawks prediction hinges on the advanced metrics that reveal which team controls the game at five-on-five. Let's break down what the data tells us.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Jets enter this contest in significantly better form than their hosts. Winnipeg has won 3 of their last 5 games and carries the confidence of a team playing well. More importantly, the Jets have had two days of rest since their last contest, allowing them to prepare fresh legs and tactical adjustments for this matchup.

Chicago, conversely, has managed just 1 win in their last 5 games—a concerning stretch that reflects deeper offensive and defensive issues. While the Blackhawks have one day of rest (standard schedule), that minimal recovery time won't address the fundamental performance gaps evident in their recent results. When a struggling team gets limited preparation time against a hot opponent, the disparity typically widens.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced analytics paint a damning picture for Chicago in this Jets Blackhawks pick. Winnipeg dominates across all three key metrics:

Corsi (Shot Attempt Share): The Jets post a 47.72 CF% compared to Chicago's 41.77 CF%. While neither team is exceptional in this measure, Winnipeg's 6-point advantage shows they're controlling play and generating more offensive opportunities at even strength.

Expected Goals (xGF%): This is where the real separation emerges. Winnipeg's 51.01 xGF% towers over Chicago's 35.36 xGF%—a massive 15.65-point gap that indicates the Jets are generating substantially more dangerous scoring chances. This metric is highly predictive of future results.

High-Danger Chances (HDCF%): The most telling stat favors Winnipeg at 45.08 HDCF% versus Chicago's 32.04 HDCF%. The Jets are creating nearly 13 more high-danger scoring opportunities per 100 minutes of play. In playoff hockey, this kind of advantage typically translates to goals.

Goalie Matchup

Connor Hellebuyck is expected to start for Winnipeg, bringing a 19-20-11 record into this contest. Hellebuyck has been a reliable presence for the Jets and will face a Blackhawks team that has struggled to generate quality chances.

Chicago counters with Septimus Knight (18-21-10), whose record reflects the team's broader struggles this season. Knight will be tested frequently by a Winnipeg team that dominates the expected goals battle, making this a significant disadvantage for the home side.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the Winnipeg Jets are favored to win this matchup with a 54.7% win probability, while the Chicago Blackhawks hold a 45.3% chance of pulling off the upset.

The Jets' advantage is anchored in superior underlying metrics, particularly their commanding xGF% and high-danger chance generation. Combined with better recent form and additional rest, Winnipeg enters as the clear choice in our NHL picks. Chicago would need an exceptional goaltending performance and likely some fortunate bounces to overcome the quality gap evident in the advanced stats.

For bettors looking at anytime goalscorer props, Mark Scheifele represents strong value on the Winnipeg side, while Connor Bedard offers upside for Chicago backers seeking a contrarian angle.

Run your own prediction using the WP Hockey Predictor calculator to customize variables and test different scenarios for this matchup.