Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders Prediction

Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders Prediction - March 13, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Los Angeles Kings travel to UBS Arena to face the New York Islanders in a matchup that pits two teams operating under very different trajectories. While the Kings sit at 3-6-1 with recent momentum, the Islanders come in at a commanding 7-3-0 record. This Kings vs Islanders prediction showcases how advanced analytics can reveal the true competitive balance between an underperforming talented roster and a well-managed defensive team. Both teams have recovered with 2 days of rest, setting the stage for a closely contested affair.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Kings' 3-6-1 record doesn't tell the complete story. Los Angeles has posted 2 wins in their last 5 games, suggesting the team is beginning to find their footing after a rough stretch. This upward trend is crucial—it indicates the Kings' core players are starting to execute at a higher level, even if the overall record remains disappointing.

The Islanders, meanwhile, sit comfortably in the playoff picture with a 7-3-0 mark and 3 wins in their last 5 games. New York's consistency and recent form represent the kind of sustained excellence that typically translates to playoff positioning. With equal rest for both teams (2 days since their last contests), neither side carries a back-to-back disadvantage into this matchup.

Advanced Stats Comparison

Here's where the Kings vs Islanders pick becomes interesting. The underlying advanced metrics heavily favor Los Angeles in terms of puck possession and shot quality.

Kings advanced stats: Los Angeles boasts a 51.67% Corsi rating, a 53.65% expected goals percentage, and a commanding 54.62% high-danger chances percentage. These numbers indicate the Kings are generating superior scoring opportunities and controlling the play in the areas that matter most.

Islanders advanced stats: New York sits at 51.65% Corsi, 48.04% xGF%, and 49.43% HDCF%. The Islanders are nearly even in possession metrics but trail significantly in shot quality and dangerous chance generation—a classic hallmark of a team that plays tight defense but doesn't necessarily dominate play creation.

This analytics divergence reveals a critical insight: the Islanders have been outplayed in terms of underlying play but have stayed competitive through discipline and goaltending. The Kings, despite their record, have been the better team on the ice in many respects.

Goalie Matchup

Darcy Kuemper takes the net for Los Angeles carrying a 15-13-10 record. While Kuemper's win-loss splits reflect the team's struggles, his underlying numbers remain solid for a goalie facing above-average shot volume and quality.

Ilya Sorokin starts for New York with an impressive 24-14-2 record—a stark contrast to Kuemper's stat line. Sorokin's superior record reflects both better team support and his own elite play. The Russian netminder has been one of the Islanders' most consistent performers this season. In the NHL picks arena, Sorokin's ability to steal games cannot be overlooked, even when the Islanders don't control play.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: Los Angeles Kings (50.1% win probability)

According to our advanced analytics calculator, the Kings edge out the Islanders with a 50.1% to 49.9% win probability split. This razor-thin margin underscores just how evenly matched these teams truly are on paper.

The Kings vs Islanders prediction favors Los Angeles primarily because their superior underlying analytics—particularly their 54.62% high-danger chances advantage—should eventually translate to goals. The Kings are generating better opportunities and controlling play at elite-shot locations. While Sorokin's elite goaltending and the Islanders' defensive structure make them dangerous, the advanced metrics suggest the Kings' talent edge is real and should show up in the scoresheet.

The pick assumes Kuemper performs at league average and both teams execute at typical efficiency rates. Run your own prediction to adjust for any variables we haven't captured.