Seattle Kraken vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction

Seattle Kraken vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction - March 31, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Seattle Kraken travel to Edmonton for a critical matchup against the Oilers in late March. With playoff positioning still very much in play, this Kraken vs Oilers prediction hinges on more than just recent results—the underlying analytics tell a compelling story about which team has the edge. Seattle enters as a team fighting to establish consistency, while Edmonton has found their rhythm with a stronger recent record. Let's break down what the numbers say about this contest.

Team Form & Recent Performance

The Edmonton Oilers are clearly the hotter team heading into this matchup. Over their last five games, Edmonton has posted 3 wins, demonstrating the offensive firepower and defensive structure that has made them a threat. The Kraken, by contrast, have managed just 1 win in their last five, suggesting they're still searching for consistency after a 3-5-2 record.

Both teams enter the game well-rested, having had 2 days to prepare since their last contest. Neither team is dealing with the fatigue factor of back-to-back games, meaning this matchup will come down to talent, execution, and who's playing better hockey. Edmonton's recent momentum gives them a psychological advantage, but Seattle showed they can compete when clicking on all cylinders.

Advanced Stats Comparison

Here's where the underlying numbers really favor Edmonton in this Kraken Oilers pick. The Oilers dominate across all three key advanced metrics:

Corsi (CF%): Edmonton's 49.16% significantly outpaces Seattle's 45.29%, indicating the Oilers are controlling play and generating more shot attempts at even strength.

Expected Goals (xGF%): This is where Edmonton's advantage becomes most apparent. The Oilers post a 54.08% xGF%, while the Kraken sit at 45.7%. This 8+ percentage point gap suggests Edmonton isn't just shooting more—they're creating higher-quality scoring chances.

High-Danger Chances (HDCF%): Edmonton's 52.5% HDCF% to Seattle's 46.61% confirms the trend. The Oilers are consistently generating chances from prime scoring areas, which translates to goals over the long haul.

Seattle's analytics suggest a team that's slightly outmatched in puck possession and chance creation. These are not massive gaps, but they're consistent advantages that favor the home team.

Goalie Matchup

Jared Daccord is expected to start for Seattle, carrying a 19-18-6 record with a team that's struggling to find its identity. Connor Ingram gets the nod for Edmonton at 13-8-2—a much stronger win-loss differential that reflects Edmonton's overall success this season.

Ingram has been a stabilizing force for the Oilers, and his numbers suggest he's facing slightly easier workloads given Edmonton's superior underlying metrics. Daccord will need to be sharp to steal this one on the road, but he's facing an Oilers team that's generating elite-level chances.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm, the Edmonton Oilers are favored in this matchup with a 52.9% win probability, compared to Seattle's 47.1%. Our NHL picks lean toward Edmonton as the better play.

The edge for the Oilers is clear: superior possession metrics, significantly higher expected goals percentage, and better recent form. While a 52.9% probability indicates this will be a competitive game—not a blowout—the numbers consistently point to Edmonton as the more dominant team. Seattle's lack of consistency in their last five games, combined with their advanced stats trailing across the board, makes them underdogs despite playing in a one-goal range.

For more detailed analysis and to explore different scenarios, run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator.