Archive note: Technical commentary has been removed. This remains historical pregame coverage; original selections have been retained where stated.

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on May 13, 2026, with one critical matchup that could reshape the postseason picture. Minnesota travels to Denver for a battle between two Western Conference contenders, where goaltending prowess and possession metrics will tell the story of who advances.

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche are favored in this showdown, and the analytics back that narrative. That gap translates to territory control and shot volume, the building blocks of playoff hockey where every inch matters.

The Wild have shown resilience with 2 wins in their last 5 games, but they're stepping into an Avalanche team that's been exceptional lately, recording 4 wins in their last 5 outings. In playoff hockey, recent form often indicates peaking at the right moment—momentum and confidence compound when the stakes are highest. Minnesota's goaltender Jesper Wallstedt (18-9-0) will need to steal a game here, as the Avalanche's shot quality advantage could overwhelm average goaltending. This is where Mackenzie Blackwood's credentials matter: the 23-10-0 netminder has been battle-tested and reliable when elimination pressure mounts.

Both teams have normal rest with one day between games, so fatigue won't be a differentiating factor. The key variable is Colorado's superior control metrics meeting Blackwood's proven playoff pedigree. WP Hockey Predictor projects the Colorado Avalanche to win with Confident-tier probability, leaving the Minnesota Wild—a relatively tight matchup that reflects the competitive nature of playoff hockey, but one where Colorado's slight edge in possession and goaltending tips the scales in their favor.

If Minnesota wants to steal Game 1 (or secure a crucial victory in a tight series), Wallstedt must be exceptional, and the Wild must punch above their possession numbers through pure urgency and discipline.

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.