Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction - March 16, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Colorado to face the Avalanche in a matchup that pits a streaky Eastern Conference team against one of the league's hottest rosters. With the Avalanche riding strong form and the Penguins looking to build momentum, this mid-March contest carries playoff implications for both sides. Our Penguins vs Avalanche prediction leans heavily on advanced analytics to separate these two competitors.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Colorado enters this game on an impressive 7-3-0 run with three wins in their last five games, establishing themselves as genuine contenders heading into the home stretch. The Avalanche have been efficient and dominant, translating strong underlying play into consistent victories.

Pittsburgh, conversely, sits at 4-3-3 over the same span with only two wins in their last five games. While the Penguins haven't been terrible, they're inconsistent—a concerning pattern when facing a team as locked-in as Colorado. Neither team plays a back-to-back on March 16, so fatigue won't be a differentiator.

The form advantage belongs decisively to the home team, which should provide an extra edge in what's shaping up to be a competitive evening.

Advanced Stats Comparison

This is where Colorado's superiority becomes evident. The Penguins vs Avalanche pick must account for the substantial gap in underlying metrics.

Corsi For Percentage (CF%): Colorado dominates at 56.13% compared to Pittsburgh's 49.31%—a 6.8-point advantage that suggests the Avalanche will control play and dictate tempo throughout the game.

Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%): Colorado's 52.37% to Pittsburgh's 49.22% indicates the Avalanche are generating higher-quality offensive chances. This small but meaningful edge translates to expected offensive output over 60 minutes.

High-Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%): Perhaps most tellingly, Colorado leads 57.45% to 48.88%—a 8.6-point gap that reveals the Avalanche are creating significantly more dangerous scoring opportunities. In playoff-style hockey, these close-range chances often decide games.

Colorado's advanced metrics paint a picture of a team that consistently outworks opponents and generates cleaner shot attempts. Pittsburgh's pedestrian numbers suggest they'll struggle to maintain possession and create offense.

Goalie Matchup

Alexandar Silovs gets the nod for Pittsburgh with a 14-9-8 record, representing a below-.500 save percentage on a struggling team. While Silovs has shown flashes of competence, his overall body of work this season doesn't inspire confidence against a high-volume offense.

Mackenzie Blackwood starts for Colorado with an impressive 18-8-1 record, commanding one of the best win totals in the league. Blackwood's strong numbers reflect both personal excellence and the team's ability to shield him with dominant possession play. He's significantly outperforming Silovs both in results and underlying metrics.

This is a major advantage for Colorado.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor favors the Colorado Avalanche with a 57.0% win probability, compared to Pittsburgh's 43.0%. Our run your own prediction to see how the analytics breakdown.

Colorado's advantages stack up: superior possession metrics, higher-quality scoring chances, better goaltending, and current form. The Avalanche have been one of the league's most complete teams, and the underlying numbers confirm it. While the Penguins possess offensive talent and shouldn't be written off, the data-driven case for Colorado is compelling.

NHL picks typically favor teams with Colorado's profile—teams that generate more chances, control the puck, and have respectable goaltending. All three boxes check for the Avalanche on March 16.