Pittsburgh Penguins vs New Jersey Devils Prediction

Pittsburgh Penguins vs New Jersey Devils Prediction - April 09, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to New Jersey to face the Devils in what shapes up as a compelling matchup between two teams fighting for positioning. With the Penguins riding recent momentum and the Devils seeking consistency, this contest carries significant implications. Our Penguins vs Devils prediction dives into the analytics that separate these two Eastern Conference rivals.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Pittsburgh enters this game in excellent recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games and holding a 6-4-0 record. The Penguins have established themselves as a dangerous offensive threat with their strong performance over their recent stretch. However, there's a critical situational factor: Pittsburgh is playing on a back-to-back, with zero days rest heading into this contest. This fatigue factor could impact their energy levels and depth contributions, particularly late in the game.

New Jersey sits at 5-4-1 with only 2 wins in their last 5 games, indicating a recent stretch of inconsistency. The Devils will also be battling fatigue as they too are on a back-to-back with zero days rest. While both teams face the same rest disadvantage, Pittsburgh's superior recent record suggests they may navigate the grind more effectively.

Advanced Stats Comparison

When examining advanced analytics, the Penguins hold a distinct edge across multiple key performance indicators. Pittsburgh's Corsi For percentage sits at 51.46%, compared to New Jersey's 49.18%, indicating the Penguins are generating more shot attempts at even strength. This possession advantage typically translates to more scoring opportunities.

The expected goals battle shows a closer affair, with Pittsburgh at 51.39% xGF and New Jersey marginally ahead at 52.52% xGF. Interestingly, New Jersey's expected goals rate slightly exceeds their Corsi, suggesting they're converting chances at a higher rate than their overall play would indicate. Pittsburgh, conversely, is outplaying their xGF numbers through better shot volume.

In high-danger chances—the most predictive indicator of goal-scoring—Pittsburgh leads with 54.41% HDCF% versus New Jersey's 53.82%. This marginal advantage in the most dangerous areas reinforces Pittsburgh's overall superiority in generating premium scoring opportunities.

Goalie Matchup

Both teams have their starting goalies listed as TBD (to be determined). This represents a significant unknown in our analysis. Goalie performance can dramatically shift game outcomes, especially in closely-matched contests. Once confirmations are announced, monitor each goalie's recent save percentage and confidence levels, as these metrics could warrant adjusting your NHL picks.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's algorithm gives the Pittsburgh Penguins a 56.0% win probability, with the New Jersey Devils at 44.0%. Our Penguins Devils pick favors Pittsburgh as the play.

The underlying data supports the Penguins. Despite both teams facing back-to-back fatigue, Pittsburgh's superior possession metrics (51.46% CF%), edge in high-danger chances (54.41% HDCF%), and recent four-game winning streak provide a meaningful advantage. New Jersey's inconsistent play over their last five games—winning only 2—further tilts the scales toward Pittsburgh.

While New Jersey's xGF% suggests they're generating quality chances, Pittsburgh's overall pattern of play and momentum make them the team to back in this matchup. For anytime goalscorer bets, consider Sidney Crosby for Pittsburgh or Jack Hughes for New Jersey as both are capable of breaking through on any given night.

Want to run your own analysis? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to test different scenarios.