Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction - March 18, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Dallas Stars travel to Denver to face the Colorado Avalanche in a critical Western Conference matchup on March 18, 2026. Both teams enter this game with momentum on their side, though they're traveling different trajectories. The Stars come in as the hotter squad, while the Avalanche will be looking to establish consistency in their home barn. This Stars vs Avalanche prediction breaks down the underlying analytics and matchup factors that will decide the outcome.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Dallas has been nearly unstoppable lately, winning 4 of their last 5 games and establishing themselves as one of the league's most dangerous teams. Their 8-1-1 record reflects a team firing on all cylinders offensively while maintaining defensive structure. The Stars come into Denver well-rested with one day since their last game, giving them a fresh lineup to deploy against a solid Avalanche squad.

Colorado, meanwhile, sits at 6-4-0 over their last 10 games—a respectable record, but notably streakier than Dallas's recent run. The Avalanche have won just 2 of their last 5 contests, suggesting inconsistency despite their elite roster talent. Like Dallas, Colorado also has normal rest with one day between games, so fatigue won't be a determining factor in this matchup.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced metrics reveal a fascinating split in this Stars Avalanche pick. Colorado leads in raw shot metrics with a 57.73% Corsi percentage, indicating they're generating more total chances and controlling play possession-wise. However, Dallas has turned their chances into higher-quality scoring opportunities.

The Stars dominate in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 57.73% versus Colorado's 54.32%—a meaningful edge that suggests Dallas is creating better-positioned scoring chances. Most impressively, Dallas leads in high-danger chances at 61.16% HDCF% compared to Colorado's 57.45%. This metric is particularly predictive of goal outcomes, meaning the Stars are consistently generating chances from prime scoring real estate.

For Dallas, these numbers reflect their balanced approach: they're not just winning possession battles, they're converting that possession into dangerous looks. For Colorado, the gap between shot volume and shot quality suggests opportunities to tighten their execution.

Goalie Matchup

Jake Oettinger takes the crease for Dallas with an impressive 28-10-5 record, establishing himself as one of the league's most reliable starters. His performance aligns with the Stars' underlying analytics—he's benefiting from a team that creates quality chances and protects him well defensively.

Mackenzie Blackwood counters for Colorado with an 18-8-1 record. While Blackwood has been solid, Oettinger's superior record and the defensive support he receives give Dallas the advantage in net. Both goalies are well-rested and ready for action.

Prediction

According to WP Hockey Predictor's advanced analytics calculator, the Dallas Stars are favored to win this matchup with a win probability of 52.9%, while the Colorado Avalanche have a 47.1% chance of victory.

The pick favors Dallas for solid reasons: superior high-danger chance creation, a hotter recent record, and elite goaltending from Oettinger. While Colorado's possession metrics are impressive, Dallas's ability to convert chances into dangerous opportunities—combined with their current form—gives them the edge in this Western Conference battle.

Want to run your own analysis? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's advanced calculator to see how different factors might shift the outcome.