Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction - April 13, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Dallas Stars head to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs in what shapes up as a tale of two contrasting trajectories. While Dallas enters on the back of four wins in their last five games, Toronto is searching for answers after a 0-5-1 stretch that has left the Maple Leafs scrambling for consistency. This Stars vs Maple Leafs prediction reflects a clear divide in form, underlying metrics, and momentum heading into Sunday's contest.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Dallas has found its rhythm at precisely the right time, posting an impressive 4-1 record over their last five outings. The Stars' recent surge suggests growing confidence and chemistry, with the offense clicking and the defense tightening up when it matters most. With a 5-4-1 overall record, Dallas is demonstrating the resilience of a playoff-contending team.

Toronto's situation couldn't be more different. The Maple Leafs have won zero of their last five games (0-5-1), a devastating stretch that has eroded confidence throughout the roster. At 3-6-1 on the season, the Maple Leafs are in genuine trouble and desperately need a spark. This matchup comes at a critical juncture for Toronto, where even a single victory could shift momentum.

Both teams enter with normal rest—one day between games—so fatigue won't be a deciding factor for either club.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The advanced analytics paint a clear picture of which team is playing the superior brand of hockey. Dallas dominates virtually every metric:

Corsi: Dallas leads significantly at 47.71% CF compared to Toronto's 42.83%, indicating the Stars control the puck and generate more shot attempts at even strength.

Expected Goals: The Stars' 50.49% xGF% versus Toronto's 40.0% shows Dallas is creating higher-quality scoring chances. This is the most telling stat—Dallas is simply generating better opportunities from a probabilistic standpoint.

High-Danger Chances: Dallas edges Toronto 51.2% to 47.41% in HDCF%, reinforcing that the Stars are winning the battle for prime scoring real estate in front of the net.

These numbers don't lie. The Stars vs Maple Leafs prediction fundamentally rests on Dallas's ability to sustain these advantages—and the numbers suggest they will.

Goalie Matchup

This is where Dallas holds a significant edge. Jake Oettinger has been exceptional, posting a 34-12-6 record with strong underlying numbers to support his wins. Oettinger's elite positioning and athleticism make him a legitimate Vezina-caliber performer.

Joseph Woll, meanwhile, carries a 15-16-7 record for Toronto. While Woll has shown flashes of brilliance, his overall season has been inconsistent, and he's been leaned on heavily during the Maple Leafs' brutal recent stretch. This matchup puts Woll in a tough spot against a surging Dallas offense.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's pick: Dallas Stars (-110)

Our advanced analytics calculator projects the Dallas Stars to win with a 55.4% probability, compared to Toronto's 44.6% win probability. This aligns perfectly with the underlying data—the Stars control shot volume, generate superior expected goals, and maintain a four-game winning streak powered by elite goaltending.

The Stars vs Maple Leafs pick favors Dallas because the Leafs' defensive metrics are simply not strong enough to overcome their recent form collapse. Toronto's 40.0% xGF% is alarming, and without significant puck-possession improvements, the Maple Leafs will struggle to generate consistent chances against Oettinger.

For our anytime goalscorer picks: Jason Robertson continues to be a prime target for Dallas, while William Nylander represents good value for Toronto if the Maple Leafs can generate offensive flow.

Want to dive deeper? Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator and test different scenarios.