Anaheim Ducks vs Ottawa Senators Prediction

Anaheim Ducks vs Ottawa Senators Prediction - March 14, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Anaheim Ducks travel to Ottawa for a matchup between two teams riding solid form heading into mid-March. With the Ducks sitting at 7-3-0 and the Senators at 6-2-2, this contest features two clubs playing meaningful hockey and competing for playoff positioning. However, the underlying analytics paint a compelling picture that favors the home team in this Ducks vs Senators prediction.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Both teams enter this game with momentum on their side. The Ducks have won three of their last five games, maintaining a competitive record in their recent stretch. Anaheim comes in well-rested with a normal schedule gap between games, allowing them to prepare effectively for the road contest.

The Senators, meanwhile, also feature three wins in their last five outings, and they'll have a slight rest advantage with two days between their previous game and this matchup. Ottawa's 6-2-2 record reflects consistency and balance, suggesting a team that's performing well across different game situations.

Neither team is dealing with back-to-back games, so fatigue won't be a significant factor in determining the outcome.

Advanced Stats Comparison

This is where the Ducks vs Senators pick gets interesting from an analytical standpoint. The Senators' underlying numbers reveal a team controlling play at a noticeably higher level than their visitors.

Ottawa leads in Corsi (CF%) with 55.72 compared to Anaheim's 50.94, indicating the Senators are generating more shot attempts and maintaining superior puck possession. More significantly, Ottawa's expected goals percentage (xGF%) sits at 59.58 versus Anaheim's 49.69—a substantial 9.89-point gap that suggests the Senators are creating higher-quality scoring opportunities.

The high-danger chances differential is equally telling: Ottawa's HDCF% of 60.34 dramatically exceeds Anaheim's 49.0. This means the Senators are winning the battle for prime scoring real estate inside the offensive zone, translating to the most dangerous opportunities. These advanced metrics strongly favor Ottawa's depth and offensive generation.

Goalie Matchup

The Ducks will counter with Lukas Dostal between the pipes, who carries a solid 26-15-2 record on the season. Dostal has performed well for Anaheim and will need to be sharp to steal a game in a building where he's facing a team generating superior chances.

Ottawa counters with Linus Ullmark, whose 19-9-7 record reflects excellent performance since arriving in the nation's capital. Ullmark has been a stabilizing force for the Senators and enters this matchup well-rested. His ability to steal games makes him a reliable option when Ottawa's defense is challenged.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor's algorithm favors the Ottawa Senators with a 56.6% win probability, compared to Anaheim's 43.4% chance of victory. The NHL picks in this matchup lean decisively toward the home team.

The reasoning is straightforward: Ottawa's substantial advantages in shot volume, expected goals, and high-danger chances creation suggest a team that will control the flow of play. While Dostal can limit damage, the Senators' ability to generate quality opportunities—particularly in close, makes them the pick in this contest. Brady Tkachuk, who stands out as an anytime goalscorer option, exemplifies the dynamic offensive weapons Ottawa deploys.

The Ducks vs Senators pick ultimately comes down to who wins the underlying battle, and the advanced metrics decisively favor Ottawa.

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