Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.
Friday night brings two intriguing Eastern and Western Conference matchups that showcase contrasting narratives. The Los Angeles Kings travel to face the New York Islanders in a statistical coin flip between two evenly-matched teams, while the Edmonton Oilers visit the St. Louis Blues in a back-to-back situation that could significantly impact performance. Our NHL predictions for March 13, 2026 reveal some compelling value in both matchups, so let's dive into the numbers.
Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders
This matchup represents one of the tightest statistical races we'll see all season. The Kings arrive in New York as the clear underdog on paper with a disappointing 3-6-1 record, yet their underlying numbers tell a more encouraging story. Los Angeles has posted an impressive 51.67% Corsi percentage and a 53.65% expected goals rate—elite possession metrics that suggest they've been generating quality chances despite subpar results. With two days of rest, the Kings should be fresh and ready to compete.
The Islanders, meanwhile, sit at 7-3-0 and are enjoying better overall form with three wins in their last five games. However, their advanced metrics reveal some concerning trends. New York's 51.65% CF% is nearly identical to Los Angeles's mark, yet their xGF% has dipped to just 48.04%—suggesting they're outplaying opponents less decisively than their win-loss record indicates. This is the type of situation where regression can occur, and the Kings' superior expected goals advantage becomes especially relevant.
The goalie matchup leans slightly toward the home side, with Ilya Sorokin's exceptional 24-14-2 record and proven pedigree against Darcy Kuemper's more pedestrian 15-13-10 mark. However, advanced analytics often tell us that goalie save percentage variance plays a role in these disparities. Our free NHL picks favor the Kings in this tight contest. WP Hockey Predictor gives the Los Angeles Kings a 50.1% win probability, edging the Islanders at 49.9%—essentially a pick'em game with the slightest lean toward the underdog.
Edmonton Oilers @ St. Louis Blues
The Oilers face a challenging road trip scenario, arriving in St. Louis on zero days' rest after playing yesterday. This back-to-back situation historically presents significant fatigue concerns, and Edmonton's 4-6-0 record reflects their season-long struggles. However, the Oilers have managed three wins in their last five games, suggesting they've found some recent offensive rhythm. Their xGF% of 51.21% demonstrates they're creating quality scoring chances when they do play, even if inconsistent goaltending has plagued them throughout the campaign.
The Blues are also navigating the back-to-back gauntlet but hold a much stronger record at 6-3-1. St. Louis has posted four wins in their last five games and appears to be the more stable, healthier team heading into this contest. However, the Blues' underlying analytics are concerning: their 45.91% CF% and 42.91% xGF% suggest they've been outplayed in most matchups despite their winning record—a classic sign of a team riding unsustainable goaltending performance.
This creates an interesting dynamic for our NHL picks today. The Blues' goaltending advantage with Joel Hofer (16-11-4) over Connor Ingram (9-6-1) provides some edge at home, yet Edmonton's superior expected goals rate and recent uptick in performance cannot be ignored. Despite Edmonton's back-to-back disadvantage, our NHL predictions through WP Hockey Predictor's advanced algorithm reveal compelling value. The calculator gives the Edmonton Oilers a 52.6% win probability, with the St. Louis Blues at 47.4%—a meaningful lean toward the visiting underdog that reflects Edmonton's xGF advantage and recent form.
Both Friday matchups offer excellent opportunities to test your betting thesis using advanced analytics. Whether you're evaluating these contests manually or seeking automated insights, try WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to see the detailed Corsi percentages, expected goals rates, and goalie metrics driving each prediction. The tool allows you to adjust for live odds, injury updates, and last-minute lineup changes, giving you the edge needed to make informed decisions on these tight NHL predictions today.
Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.