NHL Predictions for March 16, 2026 - Free Picks & Best Bets

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's predictions, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

March 16 brings five intriguing matchups across the NHL, with a dominant Dallas Stars team facing a resilient Utah Mammoth squad headlining the evening. Our NHL predictions today reveal several tight contests where analytics separate contenders from pretenders, including a near-toss-up between Boston and New Jersey that could go either way. Let's break down each game with the advanced metrics that matter.

Calgary Flames @ Detroit Red Wings

The Calgary Flames travel to Detroit looking to snap a disappointing stretch, but they'll face a Red Wings team that holds a slight edge in underlying metrics. Detroit's xGF% of 50.72 indicates better shot quality generation at even strength, while Calgary's 46.12 Corsi% suggests they're being hemmed in defensively. The Flames have won just 2 of their last 5 games, reflecting inconsistency that's plagued them all season.

Goalie matchups often decide tight contests, and this game is no exception. Detroit's John Gibson brings a 24-15-3 record and strong recent form, while Calgary's Dustin Wolf carries a 19-24-3 mark. Gibson's experience and .920+ save percentage should provide the Red Wings with confidence in a close game. Our free NHL picks favor Detroit's stability in net.

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: Detroit Red Wings (51.5%) over Calgary Flames (48.5%). A coin-flip matchup with the slightest edge to the home team, buoyed by Gibson's superior credentials.

Boston Bruins @ New Jersey Devils

This East Coast battle pits two teams trending in opposite directions. The New Jersey Devils dominate the analytics with a 55.22 CF% and 56.63 xGF%, demonstrating superior puck possession and shot quality. Boston counters with a respectable 51.7 CF% and strong recent form—the Bruins have won 3 of their last 5 games. Both teams have identical 3-win stretches recently, but New Jersey's underlying dominance cannot be ignored.

The goalie situation favors Boston slightly. Jeremy Swayman's 26-14-3 record represents elite two-way play, while New Jersey's Joonas Markstrom carries a more modest 19-16-1 mark. Despite the Devils' analytical advantage, Swayman's pedigree and Boston's road credibility keep this contest razor-thin. This may be the closest call on today's slate.

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: Boston Bruins (50.9%) over New Jersey Devils (49.1%). An absolutely marginal advantage to the Bruins—essentially a pick'em—with Swayman's elite performance potentially the deciding factor in a potential playoff preview.

Los Angeles Kings @ New York Rangers

The New York Rangers have been one of the season's feel-good stories at 6-2-2, yet our NHL predictions reveal a surprising underdog angle here. Los Angeles generates superior shot quality with a 53.52 xGF%, suggesting the Kings are getting the better of the play despite their 4-5-1 record. The Rangers' 45.41 CF% and 45.97 xGF% indicate they're not controlling possession at home, relying instead on Igor Shesterkin's excellence.

Speaking of which: Shesterkin's 22-12-6 record and elite .930+ save percentage have masked some underlying weaknesses in the Rangers' defensive structure. The Kings counter with Darcy Kuemper, whose 16-13-10 mark reflects inconsistency but solid fundamentals. Los Angeles has won 2 of 5 recently, showing signs of stability, while New York's 4-win stretch may have papered over cracks in their analytics.

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: New York Rangers (50.4%) over Los Angeles Kings (49.6%). Another extremely tight matchup with the home team favored by less than a percentage point—Shesterkin's brilliance gives New York the slimmest of edges despite Los Angeles's superior underlying metrics.

Utah Mammoth @ Dallas Stars

Dallas enters this matchup as the class of the league at 9-0-1, and our NHL picks reflect their clear supremacy. The Stars boast a 54.44 CF% and an impressive 58.83 xGF%, demonstrating dominance on both possession and shot quality. Utah's 4-4-2 record and recent struggles (just 1 win in 5) suggest they're vulnerable to Dallas's relentless attack. The Mammoth do possess respectable analytics at 54.08 CF% and 53.71 xGF%, but their inconsistency reveals underlying fragility.

This matchup features an intriguing goalie contrast. Jake Oettinger's 28-10-5 record represents elite-level goaltending, while Utah's Karel Vejmelka sits at 30-18-3—more wins in volume but lower quality. Dallas's depth, puck dominance, and Oettinger's excellence create a formidable combination that's proven difficult to overcome this season.

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: Dallas Stars (54.0%) over Utah Mammoth (46.0%). Dallas's undefeated record combined with superior analytics delivers a decisive advantage. This is the most confident pick of the evening.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Colorado Avalanche

Colorado sits atop the Western Conference at 7-3-0, and their analytics justify the hype. The Avalanche's 56.13 CF% and 52.37 xGF% demonstrate elite-level puck control and efficient offense. Pittsburgh, by contrast, shows a 49.31 CF% and 49.22 xGF%—below-average possession metrics that suggest the Penguins are fighting uphill. Pittsburgh's 4-3-3 record masks concerning underlying trends, while Colorado's 3-win stretch in their last 5 games reflects their true dominance.

Mackenzie Blackwood's 18-8-1 record in Colorado's crease provides a formidable challenge, though Tristan Silovs (14-9-8) brings solid fundamentals for Pittsburgh. The Penguins have won just 2 of 5 recently, indicating momentum issues heading west. Colorado's comprehensive advantage across possession, shot quality, and record creates the clearest favorite-underdog dynamic on today's slate.

WP Hockey Predictor Pick: Colorado Avalanche (57.0%) over Pittsburgh Penguins (43.0%). Colorado's near-60 win probability reflects their legitimate superiority in every measurable category. This represents the second-strongest conviction play behind Dallas.

Today's Takeaways

Our NHL predictions today suggest Dallas and Colorado are the only teams commanding decisive advantages, while the other three contests lean toward genuine toss-ups. If you're looking to dive deeper into the methodology behind these picks, try WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to generate your own predictions using Corsi rates, expected goals, high-danger chances, and goalie GSAA. Our free tool empowers you to evaluate every angle before placing your bets.