Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Prediction

Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Prediction - March 23, 2026

Note: Final picks on our picks page may differ from this article's prediction, as they incorporate last-minute goalie confirmations, injury updates, and live odds closer to game time. Always check the picks page for the most up-to-date selections.

The Ottawa Senators travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Rangers in a matchup that pits one of the league's hottest teams against a Rangers squad struggling to find consistency. This contest features a significant disparity in recent form and underlying metrics, making the Senators vs Rangers prediction relatively straightforward from an analytical perspective. With Ottawa riding a strong wave of play and New York facing a brutal back-to-back situation, this game could serve as an excellent opportunity for our NHL picks analysis.

Team Form & Recent Performance

Ottawa has been exceptional over their last five games, posting a 4-1 record that demonstrates sustained excellence. The Senators' 7-2-1 record reflects a team that has found its rhythm offensively and defensively. Crucially, Ottawa enters this matchup with normal rest following a single day off the schedule.

New York, by contrast, is struggling. The Rangers have won just once in their last five games, managing only a 5-4-1 record on the season. More critically, the Rangers are playing on zero days rest—this is a back-to-back situation that will test their depth and conditioning. Back-to-back games consistently correlate with higher goal-against rates and decreased performance, a factor that heavily favors the well-rested Senators in this matchup.

Advanced Stats Comparison

The underlying numbers paint a stark picture favoring Ottawa. The Senators dominate in Corsi percentage (CF%), posting an elite 56.99 compared to the Rangers' 44.4—a 12.6-point advantage that suggests Ottawa controls play and generates more shot attempts from all areas of the ice.

Expected goals percentage (xGF%) widens the gap further. Ottawa's 59.2 xGF% versus New York's 42.01 means the Senators are creating significantly higher-quality scoring chances. The high-danger chance metrics (HDCF%) reinforce this trend: Ottawa's 59.4 compared to the Rangers' 42.61 indicates the Senators are generating more premium opportunities in the critical areas directly in front of the net.

These metrics suggest Ottawa's superior shot selection, forechecking intensity, and overall offensive structure give them a legitimate edge in the underlying battle.

Goalie Matchup

Linus Ullmark is expected to start for Ottawa, bringing a strong 22-10-7 record that reflects consistent, reliable performance. Ullmark's season has been marked by solid underlying metrics and dependable play in high-leverage situations.

Igor Shesterkin takes the net for New York with a 22-14-6 record. While Shesterkin possesses elite skill, starting on a back-to-back after no rest presents a significant challenge, and the increased volume of high-danger chances Ottawa generates could test him throughout the evening.

Goalscorer Picks

Brady Tkachuk remains the top anytime goalscorer pick for Ottawa, consistently generating opportunities and providing physical net presence. For a value play, Dylan Cozens has been generating high-danger chances recently and offers superior odds compared to more obvious selections.

On the Rangers side, J.T. Miller is the primary anytime goalscorer candidate given his scoring touch. Alexis Lafrenière serves as the dark horse value play, as he's been creating chances at elevated rates with better odds available than mainstream picks.

Prediction

WP Hockey Predictor favors the Ottawa Senators with a 60.5% win probability, compared to the New York Rangers' 39.5%. This Senators Rangers pick reflects Ottawa's superior advanced metrics, stronger recent form (4-1 in last five), and the significant advantage of normal rest versus New York's brutal back-to-back situation. The combination of Ullmark's reliability, the Senators' shot quality edge, and the Rangers' fatigue factor creates a compelling case for an Ottawa victory. Run your own prediction with WP Hockey Predictor's calculator to explore different scenarios.