This analytics dataset combines historical backtest simulations with live published-pick records after April 11, 2026. Its season totals are not the official published-pick record. The reconciled 2025–26 regular-season record and 2026 playoff record, including coverage and exclusions, are disclosed below and on the Track Record page. View recorded Picks results.
Model Insights
Technical validation metrics and predictive stability.
Brier Score
0.243
Lower is better (0 = perfect)
Log Loss
0.679
Lower is better
Total Sample
4421
NHL games tested
Rolling 30-Game Win Rate
Win Rate by Day of Week
Margin of Victory (ML Wins)
Metric Interpretation
Brier Score
0.243
Coin Flip Brier
0.2500
Calibration
Fair
Model beats coin flip by
2.8%
Injury-Adjusted Predictions
Injury Model
Active
Player Stats Used
xGF% / CF%
Time Decay
Enabled
Our model weights each injury by player value using advanced analytics and adjusts impact over time as teams adapt to absences.
Injury Impact Analysis
How skater injuries affect pick accuracy. Based on 711 live picks with tracked injury data.
Win Rate by Opponent Injury Count
Win Rate by Injury Advantage
Win Rate by Picked Team's Injury Count
Injury Breakdown Detail
| Category | Scenario | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent Injuries | 0 injuries | 276 | 175 | 61.2% | 451 |
| 1-2 injuries | 129 | 85 | 60.3% | 214 | |
| 3+ injuries | 29 | 17 | 63.0% | 46 | |
| Picked Team Injuries | 0 injuries | 326 | 194 | 62.7% | 520 |
| 1-2 injuries | 91 | 68 | 57.2% | 159 | |
| 3+ injuries | 17 | 15 | 53.1% | 32 | |
| Injury Edge | WP has injury edge | 123 | 67 | 64.7% | 190 |
| Even injuries | 246 | 163 | 60.1% | 409 | |
| Opponent healthier | 65 | 47 | 58.0% | 112 |